

209 

WWUS20 KWNS 212236

SEL9

SPC WW 212236

KSZ000-MOZ000-220400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 319

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

535 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS

       NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 535 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH

NORTHWEST OF CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI TO 20 MILES WEST OF KNOB NOSTER

MISSOURI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...WW 318...



DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NE KS...AND

THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS

EVENING WHILE SPREADING EWD/NEWD INTO NW MO.  STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE

RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG...WHILE DEEP-LAYER

VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SOME OF WHICH

COULD BE VERY LARGE...WHILE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL

INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL

CLUSTERS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 25030.





...THOMPSON



841 

WWUS20 KWNS 212236

SEL9

SPC WW 212236

KSZ000-MOZ000-220400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 319

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

535 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS

       NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 535 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH

NORTHWEST OF CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI TO 20 MILES WEST OF KNOB NOSTER

MISSOURI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 316...WW 317...WW 318...



DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NE KS...AND

THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS

EVENING WHILE SPREADING EWD/NEWD INTO NW MO.  STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE

RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG...WHILE DEEP-LAYER

VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE

PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SOME OF WHICH

COULD BE VERY LARGE...WHILE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL

INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL

CLUSTERS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 25030.





...THOMPSON

