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386 

WWUS20 KWNS 162156

SEL9

SPC WW 162156

MNZ000-NDZ000-170500-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 649

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

500 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHWEST MINNESOTA

       CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 500 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF

GARRISON NORTH DAKOTA TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BEMIDJI

MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS

CENTRAL/EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S

AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH

SUPERCELL STORMS LIKELY.  LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY

STRONG...BUT LOW LCL LEVELS AND EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE THE

POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.





...HART

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