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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 69

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

105 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       NORTHERN FLORIDA INCLUDING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE

       SOUTHERN GEORGIA

       COASTAL WATERS



EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL

800 PM EST.



TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS

TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF

APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO 40 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE

FLORIDA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO

WATCH NUMBER 68. WATCH NUMBER 68 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 105

PM EST.



DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL QLCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED

TO PERSIST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA INTO THIS EVENING WITHIN PREVAILING

SWLY FLOW REGIME.  RUC OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE AMBIENT

INFLOW AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF

1000-1500 J/KG.  WHEN COUPLED WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 200 M2/S2

AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 60 KT /PER TLH VWP/...SETUP WILL REMAIN

FAVORABLE FOR DEEP UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES

AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND

GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.





...MEAD

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