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WWUS20 KWNS 102004

SEL9

SPC WW 102004

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 369

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

305 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       MINNESOTA



EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70

STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

FAIRMONT MINNESOTA TO 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF INTERNATIONAL

FALLS MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 368...



DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

INTENSITY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ATTENDANT TO DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE

TROUGH OVERSPREADS DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR.  MODIFICATION OF 18Z

MPX SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP

HAS BECOME QUITE WEAK WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  WHEN COUPLED

WITH A STEADILY STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE...SETUP WILL

BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS

AND LINE SEGMENTS...CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 21030.





...MEAD

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