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516 

WWUS20 KWNS 252246

SEL9

SPC WW 252246

KSZ000-MOZ000-260400-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 649

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

550 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2012



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF



       SOUTHEAST KANSAS

       SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI



EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 550 PM UNTIL

1100 PM CDT.



HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 25

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES WEST OF

CHANUTE KANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VICHY MISSOURI.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.



OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 648...



DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN

COVERAGE THIS EVENING...ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND A WEAK

SURFACE BOUNDARY.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTS PRIMARILY

MULTICELL STORMS...BUT THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE CAPE WILL

FAVOR BOTH LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS...AS WELL

AS THE RISK FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS/OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.



AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 28020.





...THOMPSON

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