

020 

WWUS20 KWNS 092047

SEL9

SPC WW 092047

IAZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-100500-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 499

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

335 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  SOUTHWEST IOWA

  NORTHERN KANSAS

  NORTHWEST MISSOURI

  SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA



* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 335 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT

  CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS

    TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE

  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2

    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO 60 MILES EAST OF SHENANDOAH IOWA.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



&&



DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVE

ALONG STRENGTHENING W-E WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE NEAR

THE NEB-KS BORDER. OTHER STORMS WITH MAINLY A SVR WIND/MARGINAL HAIL

THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO FORM/STRENGTHEN OVER FAR ERN NEB/WRN IA...IN

ZONE OF ASCENT/WAA AHEAD OF WEAKEN ERN NEB UPR IMPULSE.

WHILE MID-LVL WARMING IN WAKE OF ERN NEB UPR IMPULSE CASTS SOME

UNCERTAINTY ON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN WW AREA THIS EVE...ATTM IT

APPEARS THAT COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SFC HEATING...RICH LOW-LVL

MOISTURE...AND EXPECTED STRENGTHENING/TEMPORAL VEERING OF 700 MB

FLOW WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW

SUPERCELLS...ONCE WARM LAYER IS BREACHED BY UPLIFT ALONG BOUNDARY.

OVERALL SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR TORNADOES

IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MERGE INTO A

LEWP-BEARING MCS LATER THIS EVE...WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR DMGG

WIND/TORNADOES.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.





...CORFIDI



057 

WWUS20 KWNS 092047

SEL9

SPC WW 092047

IAZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-100500-



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 499

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

335 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2014



THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

  SOUTHWEST IOWA

  NORTHERN KANSAS

  NORTHWEST MISSOURI

  SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA



* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 335 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT

  CDT.



* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

  A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS

    TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE

  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2

    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE



THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

KEARNEY NEBRASKA TO 60 MILES EAST OF SHENANDOAH IOWA.  FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.



&&



DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH THIS EVE

ALONG STRENGTHENING W-E WARM FRONT/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE NEAR

THE NEB-KS BORDER. OTHER STORMS WITH MAINLY A SVR WIND/MARGINAL HAIL

THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO FORM/STRENGTHEN OVER FAR ERN NEB/WRN IA...IN

ZONE OF ASCENT/WAA AHEAD OF WEAKEN ERN NEB UPR IMPULSE.

WHILE MID-LVL WARMING IN WAKE OF ERN NEB UPR IMPULSE CASTS SOME

UNCERTAINTY ON THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN WW AREA THIS EVE...ATTM IT

APPEARS THAT COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SFC HEATING...RICH LOW-LVL

MOISTURE...AND EXPECTED STRENGTHENING/TEMPORAL VEERING OF 700 MB

FLOW WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW

SUPERCELLS...ONCE WARM LAYER IS BREACHED BY UPLIFT ALONG BOUNDARY.

OVERALL SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR TORNADOES

IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND/SVR HAIL. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MERGE INTO A

LEWP-BEARING MCS LATER THIS EVE...WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR DMGG

WIND/TORNADOES.



AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.





...CORFIDI

