

886 

AGPN40 KWNM 210256

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

756 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



ATTM I DONT PLAN ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT GRIDS OR

ASSOCIATED TEXT FCST. THE OVERALL FCST PATTERN HASNT CHANGED MUCH

OVER PASS SEVERAL DAYS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD

AGREEMENT.



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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



SUMMARY...12Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT ARCING

FROM NE TO SW ACROSS THE WATERS ABOUT 300 NM NW OF THE PZ5

AREA...WITH BROAD LOW PRES TROFING OVER WRN CONUS AND A HIGH PRES

RIDGE BUILDING E TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. LATEST AVAILABLE ASCAT

AND ASCAT HI-RES PASSES FROM LAST NITE AND THIS MORNING SHOW N TO

NW WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE WRN PZ5 AREA...WITH A LARGER SWATH OF

WINDS TO 20 KT COVERING MUCH OF THE REMAINING PART OF THE PZ5

AREA...BUT OTHERWISE ASCAT SHOWS LIGHT WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS OVER

THE OFSHR WTRS.



MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO THE

CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE FCST PERIOD...WITH THE

TROF/RIDGE COUPLET CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST THU NITE. AM NOT

EXPECTING ANY WINDS ABOVE 30 KT IN THE OFSHR/COASTAL WTRS DURING

THE FCST PERIOD...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM AND ALL OF THE MED

RNG MDLS.



MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VERY GUD OVERALL AGREENT

OVER THE OFSHR/COASTAL WTRS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS 10M

SOLN LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE ENUF TO BE USED FOR THE WIND GRIDS THRU

AT LEAST THU NITE. AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO

THE CURRENT FCST TREND.



SEAS...BOTH THE ENP VERSION OF THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III MDL AND THE

12Z ECMWF WAM INITIALIZED WELL ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS...AND BOTH

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GUD AGREEMNT THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH

ONLY A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED. WILL POPULATE THE WAVE HT

GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z ENP WW3/ECMWF WAM THRU THE

FCST PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT THE DIFFERENCES.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.





.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER SHAW/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

