

390 

AGNT40 KWNM 141910

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

310 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



SUMMARY...12Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTNDG ROUGHLY

W TO E ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE...WITH A LOW PRES TROF JUST INLAND

OF THE MID ATLC COAST...AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE SRN AND

CENTRAL NT2 WTRS. LATEST AVAILABLE ASCAT HI-RES AND ASCAT PASSES

FROM LAST NITE SHOW A COUPLE OF AREAS OF WINDS TO 20 KT IN SW FLOW

OVER THE NRN AND NE PARTS OF THE NT2 WTRS...WITH LIGHT WINDS OF

15 KT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINING OFSHR WTRS. LIGHTNING DENSITY

PRODUCT DATA AT 1830Z DID NOT SHOW ANY SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY

OVER THE OFSHR WTRS.



MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE SE TODAY...PASS JUST

N OF THE NT1 AREA THIS EVENING...THEN ACCELERATE OFF TO THE E

TONITE AND MON. THE LOW WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SE OVER THE NT1 AND

NRN NT2 WTRS TONITE AND MON. A HI PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE

NT1 WTRS LATE MON AND MON NITE...THEN MOVE E ACROSS THE NT1 AREA

TUE. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS E OVER THE NRN NT1 WTRS TUE NITE INTO

WED...THEN ACCELERATE OFF TO THE E LATE WED AND WED NITE. A LOW

PRES TROF WILL APPROACH THE COAST WED NITE...THEN MOVE OFSHR INTO

THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO

MOVE SE OVER THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS THU NITE AND FRI. 



MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VERY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMNT

ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS DURING THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT THE 12Z GFS

IS STILL SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MDLS WITH THE SECOND

LOW FOR TUE NITE INTO THU. THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET MDLS ARE STILL IN

THE BEST AGREEMNT OF ALL THE MED RNG MDLS. THE ECMWF STILL LOOKS

LIKE THE MOST REPRESENTATIVE AND CONSISTENT OF THE MDLS...SO THE

12Z ECMWF SOLN WILL BE USED FOR THE WIND GRIDS OVER THE ENTIRE

FCST PERIOD. 



SEAS...THE 12Z RA1 SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATES OBSERVED SEA HTS

CONTINUE TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE 12Z WNA WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z

ECMWF WAM. IN ORDER TO STAY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREFERRED 12Z ECMWF

SOLN...AM GOING TO USE THE 12Z ECMWF WAM FOR THE WAVE HT GRIDS FOR

THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

