

748 

AGPN40 KWNM 180901

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

201 AM PDT THU AUG 18 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THE ASCAT PASS FROM 05Z INDICATES MAINLY 25-30 KT ACROSS THE

WATERS N OF 35N WITH MAX WINDS TO 35 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS

ALONG THE NRN CA CST...JUST TOUCHING THE INNER OFFSHORE WATERS. S

OF 35 KT THE WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT. A NE-SW RIDGE AXIS IS

SITUATED JUST W OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. RECENT OBS SHOW THE MAX

SEAS ARE NR 12-13 FT ALONG THE NR CA CST..SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT OVER

THE SRN CA WATERS. FURTHER N OVER THE WA/OR WATERS SEAS ARE

RUNNING 6-10 FT.



OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE RIDGE AXIS W OF THE REGION WILL

SLOWLY MOVE W CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WHILE SHFTING

WESTWARD. THE WINDS OVER THE WA/OR WATERS WILL REMAIN STEADY AT

20-30 KT DURING THE FIRST 3 DAY...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS A

HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS E INTO THE WATERS. A LOW PRES TROUGH SW OF

VANCOUVER ISLAND WILL HELP MAINTAIN A TIGHTER GRADIENT ACROSS THE

NE PTN OF THE WA WATERS.



THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE

FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER GRADIENT

ALONG THE NRN CA CST LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS APPEARS A LITTLE

OVERDONE CONSIDERING BOTH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE WEAKER DURING

THAT TIME. WILL POP THE WIND GRIDS USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 10M

AND 30M GFS THROUGH 00Z SUN...THEN TRANSITION TO THE 10M GFS FOR

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 



SEAS...BOTH THE ENP AND WAM WERE INITIALIZED PRETTY GOOD ACROSS

THE REGION. WILL POP THE WAVE GRIDS USING A BLEND OF THE ENP AND

WAM THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

