

002 

AGPN40 KWNM 221951

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

1251 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THE 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE N CA

WATERS...WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM QUEEN CHARLOTTE

ISLANDS S TO W OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. ASCAT PASSES FROM LATE MON

MORNING MISSED N CA/S OR COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH IS AREA OF

STRONGEST WINDS...HOWEVER SHIP AND BUOY OBS CONFIRM 20 TO 25 KT IN

THIS AREA WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH MODEL FIELDS. 



THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING MOST

OF THE FCST PERIOD...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES APPEARING BY DAY 5. FOR

TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...MODELS REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT IN INDICATING

HIGH PRES W OF THE WASHINGTON OFFSHORE WATERS MIGRATING W DURING

THE PERIOD WHILE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING. AT THE SAME TIME...TROUGH

ALONG THE N/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EXPAND N ALONG THE

OREGON/WASHINGTON COASTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING N TO NW

WINDS MAINLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS OF THE WA/OR/N CA ZONES. ALL OF

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CLOSE WITH THE PRES GRAD...SO WILL

CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS 10M WINDS TO POPULATE WIND GRIDS.

OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT WINDS HIGHER THAN 25 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD

WITH NO WARNINGS. LOOKING AHEAD TO FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS WITH STRENGTH OF LOW

FCST TO MOVE S OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE

STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO PLAN ON USING THE 12Z ECMWF

BEGINNING 00Z SAT CONTINUING THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD. 



.SEAS...THE 18Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS

WERE WITHIN A FT OF THE MWW3 AND PLAN ON POPULATING WAVE GRIDS

USING MMM3 THROUGH 00Z SAT SIMILAR TO WINDS...THEN TRANSITIONING

TO ECMWF WAM.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

