

798 

AGPN40 KWNM 310238

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

738 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL W

OF THE PZ6 WATERS CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH INLAND LOW PRES OVER

SRN CALIFORNIA TO PRODUCE NW WINDS UP TO 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF

SRN CALIFORNIA WITH THE STRONGEST CONDITIONS W OF POINT

CONCEPTION. THE STRONGEST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH

FRI AND THEN SHIFT N TO OFF OF NRN CALIFORNIA BY SAT. BY LATE SAT

THE STRONGEST CONDITIONS OF 30 KT SHOULD BE W OF POINT ARENA.

FARTHER N...LOW PRES WILL REMAIN N OF THE WASHINGTON WATERS

THROUGH THU AND THEN MOVE SE INTO THE NRN PZ5 WATERS BY THU NIGHT

WITH WINDS UP TO 25 KT. FOR WIND GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE

CURRENT GRIDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST

LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY NO WARNINGS ACROSS THE

OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.



FOR WAVE GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE CURRENT GRIDS THROUGHOUT

THE FORECAST PERIOD.



EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



ASCAT PASS FROM 18Z SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS

THE WA/OR WATERS WITH S-SW WINDS 10-20 INADV OF BNDRY. FURTHER

S...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE-SW OVER THE CENTRAL CA WATERS...WHILE

A VERY WEAK LOW CENTER IS INDICATED IN THE CENTRAL WATERS AS WELL.

MAX SEAS AS INDICATED BY RECENT ALTIMETER PASSES AND CURRENT OBS

ARE OCCURING OVER SRN WATERS AND FAR SERN PTN OF CENTRAL CA

WATERS...NEAR 9 FT. BUOY 46047 RPT 7 FT AT 20Z.



THE OVERALL FCST PATTERN HASNT CHANGED MUCH WITH THE 12Z GLOBAL

MODEL CYCLE. THE RELATIVELY WEAK COASTAL TROF WILL PERSIST ALONG

THE CA CST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...REMAINING THE FOCAL POINT FOR

THE HIGHER WINDS. MAX WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE 25 KT

OVER THE INNER OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH HIGHER WINDS OCCURING IN

THE COASTAL ZONES. ATTM I DONT EXPECT ANY GALES TO

OCCUR...ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL CA COASTAL

WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL

W OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...OCCASIONALLY RIDGING E INTO

THE NRN AND CENTRAL CA WATERS. FURTHER N...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN

FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE WA/OR WATERS AS A SERIES OF TROFS OR

WEAK FRONTAL BNDRIES CROSS THE AREA. LATE IN THE WEEK HIGH PRES

WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WA/OR WATERS.



FOR THE MOST PART THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PREETY GOOD AGREEMENT

THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PART WAYS

SOMEWHAT AFTER DAY 3 AS THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER AND BRINGS A

LOW CENTER SE INTO THE WA/OR REGION...WHILE THE UKMET/ECMWF SOLN

KEEPS A WEAK CENTER JUST N OF THE WATERS. WILL KEEP CONTINUITY

AND POP THE GRIDS USING COMBINATION OF ECMWF AND UKMET THROUGHOUT

THE FCST PERIOD.



SEAS...BOTH THE ENP AND WAM INTIIALIZED WELL ACROSS THE WATERS.

WILL POP THE WAVE GRIDS USING THE CORRESPONDING MODEL TO MATCH THE

WIND GRIDS.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.





.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER NOLT/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

