

206 

AGNT40 KWNM 041902

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

302 PM EDT THU AUG 4 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



SUMMARY...THE 12Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW CENTERED IN

THE NT2 AREA NEAR 34N72W...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTNDG E FROM THE LOW

AND A COLD FRONT EXTNDG SW FROM THE LOW AND ACROSS THE SRN NT2

WTRS TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A HI PRES

RIDGE OVER THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS. LATEST AVAIL ASCAT AND ASCAT

HI-RES PASSES FROM THIS MORNING SHOW MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT WINDS

OVER THE OFSHR WTRS...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS

ACROSS MUCH OF THE NT1 AREA...AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE OUTER

ZONES OF THE SRN NT2 WTRS. LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT DATA FROM

1840Z SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SRN NT2

WTRS.



MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE SRN NT2

WTRS THIS EVENING AND TONITE...THEN PASS E OF THE OFSHR WTRS FRI.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRI NITE AND SAT...MOVE SE

OVER THE OFSHR WTRS LATE SAT THRU SUN NITE...THEN STALL ACROSS THE

SRN NT2 WTRS MON AND MON NITE WHILE WEAKENING. OTHERWISE...HI PRES

RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS DURING THE FCST PERIOD.



MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD OVERALL AGREEMENT

THRU TUE NITE...AND THE MAX WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25

KT. THE 12Z GFS 10M SOLN LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE ENUF TO BE USED FOR

THE WIND GRIDS OVER THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. AM NOT PLANNING TO

MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST TREND.



SEAS...12Z WNA WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM BOTH INITIALIZED

WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS...AND ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT WITH

ONE ANOTHER THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR DIFFS

NOTED. SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z WNA WAVEWATCH

III/ECMWF WAM THRU THE FCST PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT THE MDL DIFFS.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

