

210 

AGNT40 KWNM 280603

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

203 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM

NEAR CAPE MAY E ACROSS THE FAR NRN NT2 WATERS...WITH A WEAK TROUGH

ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ASCAT PASSES FROM LATE WED EVENING

INDICATED THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE OVER THE

SRN HALF OF THE NT2 WATERS...WITH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE

REMAINDER OF AREA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE

SOME STRIKES OVER CENTRAL NT2 ZONES WITH WEAKENING CLUSTER OF

TSTMS MOVING OFF N CAROLINA COAST. 



THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING THE IMMEDIATE SHORT

TERM PERIOD THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH DIFFERENCES PERSISTING FOR

THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. THE MAIN FCST ISSUE WILL BE LOW

PRES WHICH IS FCST BY ALL THE MODELS TO MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY

COAST LATE FRI MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK NE ACROSS

THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRI NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSING

SE. THE 00Z UKMET HAS TRENDED A BIT FASTER COMPARED TO THE 12Z RUN

FROM YESTERDAY...MAINLY AFTER 00Z SAT AND A BIT FURTHER N. THE 00Z

GFS SEEMS TO BE A DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE 12Z

ECMWF FROM WED...AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE 00Z GEM. WITH THIS IN

MIND...PLAN TO POPULATE USING THE GFS 10M WINDS FROM TODAY THROUGH

00Z MON. LOOKING AHEAD TO 00Z MON AND BEYOND...ANOTHER LOW IS FCST

TO MOVE ACROSS THE NT1 WATERS WITH THE 00Z UKMET BEING THE

FURTHEST N WITH THE TRACK AND THE GFS WEAKER AND FURTHER S. IN

THIS CASE...THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN

THE WEAKER FURTHER S GFS AND THE UKMET WHICH IS MORE N...SO FOR

NOW WILL POPULATE USING THE ECMWF WINDS BEGINNING 00Z MON THROUGH

THE END OF PERIOD. WILL MAKE FINAL DECISION AFTER 00Z ECMWF

ARRIVES. 



.SEAS...THE 03Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE OBSERVED

SEAS CONTINUE TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE MWW3. SIMILAR TO THE WIND

GRIDS...WILL USE THE MWW3 THROUGH 00Z MON...THEN WILL TRANSITION

TO ECMWF WAM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

