

570 

AGPN40 KWNM 270735

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

1235 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THE LTST GOES WV IMGRY INDC AN UPR RDG OVER THE COAST...AND THE

LTST NCEP SFC ANALYS INDC STG HIGH PRES JUST W OF THE NRN CAL OFSHR

WTRS. THE ANALYS ALSO INDC A STG HEAT LOW OVR NRN CAL WITH A HEAT

TROF EXTENDING TO THE S IN THE CENTRAL CAL VALLEY...BEING FUELED

EARLIER BY TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE CAL

INTERIOR. THE RESULTANT STG PRES GRAD BTWN THE HEAT TROF AND THE

STG HIGH PRES TO THE W HAS INCRSD THE WINDS...HIGHEST OFF THE NRN

CAL COAST. CRNT SFC RPRTS INDC ONLY UP TO 25 KT...THO NONE ARE IN

THE STGT PART OF THE PRES GRAD...BUT THE 05Z ASCAT WIND RETRIEVALS

INDC GALES JUST W OF PT ST GEORGE...IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE 00Z

GFS 10M WINDS ARE INIT A LTL LOW WHEN COMPARED WITH THE DATA...AND

THE 30M WINDS ARE INIT A LTL STG. THE 00Z GEM WINDS ARE ALSO INIT

A LTL TOO STG...AND INDC 40 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THE 00Z

ECMWF/UKMET ARE INIT LOW. THE PREV FCST WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE

GFS 10M AND 30M WINDS...WHICH SEEMS TO PRODUCE THE MOST

REPRESENTATIVE WINDS. AS A RESULT...PLANNING ON USING THIS SAME

BLEND TO START OFF WITH...AND WL EXPAND GALES OVR THE OFSHR WTRS

LATER TDA AS THE INTERIOR HEATS UP AGAIN.



OTRW...THE 00Z GFS AGREES SOMEWHAT WELL WITH THE REST OF THE 00Z

THRUT THE FCST PD...AND ALL SOLNS INDC THE RDG WL SLOWLY

STRENGTHEN OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONTINUE INTERACTING WITH THE

TROF. THE 00Z MDLS MAINTAIN GALES OFF THE NRN CAL COAST...SO

PLANNING ON STAYING WITH THE GFS SOLN AS IT INDC GALES IN THE

NRN PZ5 OFSHR WTRS INTO SAT...AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS

SCENARIO AND IS IN GOOD AGRMT WITH THE REST OF THE 00Z GUID.



THE BIGGEST FCST PROBLEM IS A SECONDARY AREA OF GALES THAT THE GFS

HAS BEEN CONSISTENLY SHOWING OVER THE NE WAS WATERS. THE MDLS ALL

INDC A SECOND TROF WL DEVELOP OVR THE WAS COAST AND EXTEND N INTO

BC...WHILE INTERACTING WITH HIGH PRES SW OF THE AREA. THE MDLS

ALSO INDC A WK COLD SURGE BEHIND A WK SFC BNDRY WL MOV INTO THE

FAR E PAC...AND LOW STATIC STABILITY TO ALLOW GREATER MIXING OF

STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC. THE 00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF 925 MB

WINDS ALL INDC GALES FRI NGT INTO SAT...UP TO 45 KT. SOME OF THESE

HIGHER WINDS SHUD MIX DOWN...AS NOTED EARLIER. IN ADDITION...N

FLOW OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN VANCOUVER ISLE SHUD ALSO PROVIDE

SOME ACCELERATION TO THE SFC WINDS...IN THE FORM OF LL CONFLUENCE.

THE PREV FCST HELD OFF ON THE GALES FOR FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT...AS

CONFDC WAS LOWER. HOWEVER...CONFDC IS NOW MDT WITH THE GUD MDL

AGRMT BTWN 00Z SOLNS...AND NOW SEEMS LIKELY WITH THE LOWER STATIC

STABILIY/GALES ALOFT/LL CONFLUENCE. AS A RESULT...PLANNING ON

ADDING GALES TO THE NE WAS WTRS IN THE NEXT FCST. OTRW WL STAY NR

THE 00Z GFS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST.



SEAS...THE 00Z WAVEWATCH-III AND ECMWF WAM ARE INIT A FT OR TWO

LOW INVOF THE GALES OFF THE NRN CAL COAST...SO WL NEED TO BOOST

SEAS INITIALLY. OTRW...THE 00Z MDLS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT

THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...PLANNING ON FAVORING THE

00Z NWW3...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF WAM...AND BEST

REFLECTS PREFERRED WX MDL TRENDS.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...

     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. 

.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...

     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT. 



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE TODAY INTO THU NIGHT. 

     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SUN NIGHT. 

.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.



$$



.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

