

273 

AGNT40 KWNM 011849

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

249 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 12Z MDLS PRESENT NO MAJOR CHNGS FM

THEIR PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS. THE MDLS OVERALL REMAIN IN GOOD AGRMT

THAT THE STNRY FRONT NOW ACRS THE NRN NT2 WTRS WL REMAIN IN PLACE

TONITE INTO TUE WHL SVRL WEAK LOWS TRACK E ALONG THE FRONT. BY

LATE TUE/TUE NITE THE MDLS SHARE SMLR TIMING FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH

S AS A COLD FRONT INTO THE CNTRL NT2 WTRS AS A STRONGER SFC LOW ON

THE FRONT CROSSES THE OUTERMOST NRN NT2 WTRS. THEN WED/WED NITE

WITH SLIGHT POSITION DIFFERENCES...THE 12Z MDLS FCST THE FRONT TO

BCM QSTNRY W-E IN THE VCNTY OF 34N WITH PRHPS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE

(PER THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF) MOVING OFF THE SE COAST WED NITE BUT WITH

ASCD GRADIENTS RMNG WEAK WITH LITE WINDS. SO WITH THE DIFFERENCES

IN THE 12Z MDLS FCST BL WINDS RMNG MINIMAL...SMLR TO THE PREV FCST

PACKAGE...PLAN ON POPULATING OUR FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE

REPRESENTATIVE 12Z GFS 10M BL WINDS FOR TONITE THRU WED NITE WHICH

WL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHNGS TO THE PREV OFSHR FCSTS.



IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 12Z MDLS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WL REMAIN

QSTNRY ACRS THE SRN NT2 WTRS THU THRU FRI...THEN DSIPT FRI NITE

WITH SVRL WEAK ASCD SFC LOWS TRACKING E ALONG THE FRONT BUT WITH

WEAK ASCD GRADIENTS PERSISTING WITH LITE WINDS. BASED ON THE WEAK

UPR LEVEL SUPPORT FCSTD...WULD FAVOR THE WEAKER FRONTAL WAVES FCST

BY THE 12Z GFS VS THE STRONGER 12Z GEM/UKMET/ECMWF. THEREFORE WL

CONT TO POPULATE WITH THE 12Z GFS 10M BL WINDS ON THU THRU FRI.

FURTHER N BY LATE FRI THRU SAT THE 12Z GLOBAL TO VARYING DEGREES

CONT TO FCST A GRADLY STRENGTHENING SLY GRADIENT TO DVLP ACRS THE

NRN WTRS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APRCHS FM THE NW...THEN MOVES

OFSHR SAT NITE. FOR THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT WULD FAVOR THE SMLR

12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN SOLUTIONS...WHICH ON SAT NITE BCM LESS

PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 12Z GEM/UKMET AND IN BETTER AGRMT WITH THE

LATEST WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. BUT FOR THE FCST GRADIENTS ASCD

WITH THIS FRONT...WL FAVOR THE MR CONSISTENT 12Z GFS. SO WL CONT

TO POPULATE OUR FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE 12Z GFS 10M BL WINDS FOR

FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE.



SEAS...OVERALL THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM HV BOTH

INITIALIZED THE CURRENT SEAS THRUT THE WTRS VERY WELL. WITH THIS

IN MIND AND SINCE THEIR ASCD 12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BEING

SMLR...AND WITH THEIR FCST DIFFERENCES GNRLY RMNG IN THE 1-2 FT

RANGE...WL POPULATE OUR FCST WAVE GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE

12Z WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM MDLS TONITE THRU WED NITE.

THEN SINCE THE 12Z GFS WL BCM FAVORED...WL TRANSITION TO

POPULATING WITH ALL 12Z WAVEWATCH III FCST SEAS ON THU THRU SAT

NITE.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. 



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

