

799 

AGPN40 KWNM 300255

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

755 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.



SEAS...WWIII ENP WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS.



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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



THE OVERALL WEAK PATTERN THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE EPAC FOR

SOME TIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE UPCOMING 7 DAY PERIOD. A WEAK

COASTAL TROF WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CALFORNIA CST...OCCASIONALLY

EXTENDING N ALONG THE SW OREGON CST. WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CA CST

WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT...TO AS HIGH AS 15-25 KT. FURTHER N...THE

FLOW WILL BE PRIMARILY W-NW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WA/OR WATERS AS

WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION.



THE ASCAT PASS FROM 18Z SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF WINDS TO 25 KT ALONG

THE CENTRAL CA CST ACROSS THE INNER OFFSHORE WATERS. FURTHER N...A

WEAK COLD FRONT IS INDICATED OVER THE WA/OR WATERS WITH WINDS

GENERALLY 15-20 INADV OF BNDRY.



THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST

PART...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER IN THE WEEK...MAINLY ACROSS THE

WA/OR WATERS. THE GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF ALL DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH

LOCATION OF A RIDGE AXIS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE WATERS...ALSO THE

GFS FCSTS A LOW CENTER TO MOVE INTO THE WA WATERS...WHILE NEITHER

THE UKMET OR ECMWF INDICATE THAT. WILL POP THE WIND GRIDS USING

THE GFS THROUGH 06Z THU...THEN TRANSITION THE UKMET THROUGH 12Z

SUN. THE UKMET IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF

ON THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS LATER IN THE WEEK. I FINISHED

OUT THE WEEK BY USING THE GFS.



SEAS...THE WAM INITIALZIED SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN ENP...THEREFOR I

POP THE WAVE GRIDS USING THE WAM THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT...THEN

TRANSITIONED TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE WAM AND ENP THROUGH 12Z SUN.

I WILL FINISH BY USING THE ENP.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.





.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER ACHORN/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

