

762 

AGPN40 KWNM 272051

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

151 PM PDT WED JUL 27 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THE ENHANCED PRES GRADIENT PERSISTS OVER THE NRN CA/SRN OR WATERS

THIS AFTN PER THE 18Z OPC SFC ANALYSIS. STRONG NLY FLOW CONTINUES

BETWEEN A 1030 MB HIGH W OF THE WATERS AND A 1010 MB THERMAL LOW

ANALYZED OVER NRN CA. A 1757Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A LARGE SWATH OF

20-30 KT WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PZ5 WATERS INTO THE NRN AND 

CENTRAL PZ6 WATERS...WITH A FEW GALE BARBS NOTED IN THE COASTAL

WATERS W OF THE CA/OR BORDER.



THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF GALES

BEGINNING OVER THE NRN CA WATERS LATER THIS AFTN...EXPANDING INTO

THE FAR SE OR WATERS ON FRI AS THIS PATTERN PERSISTS FOR THE NEXT

FEW DAYS. POPULATED WITH A BLEND OF THE 10/30M GFS WINDS THRU SAT

TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 10M GFS/ECMWF WINDS RUNNING A BIT TOO LOW AS

NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS FCST. THEN TRANSITIONED TO THE 10M GFS WINDS

THROUGH MON NIGHT...WHICH REFLECTS LOWERED CONFIDENCE FOR GALES

LATER IN THE PERIOD AND MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND OUR

NEIGHBORING WFOS. AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES RIDES OVER THE SFC

RIDGE SUN THRU EARLY MON...SFC HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN AND THE

GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ENOUGH FOR THESE GALES TO SUBSIDE BY SUN

NIGHT.



A SECOND AREA OF GALES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE WA

WATERS LATE FRI/EARLY SAT. THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SFC

TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN PZ5 WATERS FRI INTO SAT...WITH

ENHANCED N/NW FLOW PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00Z-12Z SAT OVER THE NE

PORTION OF PZ800. THERE WAS ENOUGH SUPPORT WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE

TO WARRANT KEEPING THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES IN THE FCST ATTM.



.SEAS...A JASON-2 ALTIMETER PASS FROM 1828Z INDICATES THAT BOTH

THE NWW3 AND ECMWF WAM GUIDANCE ARE STILL RUNNING 1-2 FT TOO LOW

WITHIN THE STRONG NLY FLOW OFF NRN CA. USED PREVIOUS WAVE GRIDS

FOR THE NEAR TERM AND MANUALLY EDITED THEM TO BOOST SEAS AND REFLECT

THE 14 FT MAX SHOWN IN THE LATEST ALTIMETER DATA. THEN POPULATED

WITH THE 12Z NWW3 THU THROUGH MON NIGHT TO MATCH THE WIND GRIDS.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...

     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...

     GALE FRI.

     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE TODAY INTO FRI. 

     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SUN. 

.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.



$$



.FORECASTER REINHART. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

