

697 

AGNT40 KWNM 211253

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

853 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY

AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED TSTMS OVER SRN NT2 WATERS S

OF STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO A FEW TSTMS WERE NOTED OVER

NE NT2 WATERS S OF GEORGES BANK. THE 06Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE IN

VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z GFS AS WELL AS THE OTHER 00Z

MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 09Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED

THAT THE SHIP AND BUOY OBS MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE MWW3/ECMWF

FCST VALUES...AND WILL ALSO NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE WAVE

GRIDS AS WELL. 



-----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



00Z MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGRMT THIS MORNING THRU THE MEDIUM

RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL

SHIFTS WILL BE USING THE LATEST GFS 10M WIND GUIDANCE AS THE

BASIS FOR THE GRIDS AND SUBSEQUENT TEXT PRODUCTS.



WEAK STNRY FRONT BISECTS THE CENTRAL NT2 WATERS THIS MORNING

BASICALLY E OF CAPE HATTERS ALONG LATITUDE 35N. ALONG THE BOUNDARY

A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NR 35N72W AT 06Z...THAT WILL

SLOWLY LIFT N TODAY WHILE DRAGGING THE BOUNDARY N AS A WARM

FRONT. THE LOW WILL DSIPT AND THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT THIS AFTN 

AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW

TONIGHT...THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT FILTERING

A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE WRN ATLC. STILL EXPECT A

BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS TO 25 KT IN THE CAA / NW FLOW OVER INNER ZNS

815 AND 810 MON MORNG WELL SUPPORTED BY ALL MODEL OUTPUT. HIGH

PRES WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION TUE...BEFORE SHIFTING OVER

THE NE WATERS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. FARTHER S...THE COLD

FRONT WILL STALL E OF THE NT2 WATERS TUE NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY

RETROGRADE W INTO THE ERN WATERS THRU THU NIGHT.



SEAS...RELATIVELY FLAT SEAS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE OFSHR WTRS

THIS MORNING WITH HIGHEST VALUES (ONLY TO 4 FT) INVOF GULF STREAM

NEAR THE STNRY FRONT. SINCE USING THE GFS THRUT SEE NO REASON TO

STRAY FAR FROM 00Z WNA WW3 OUTPUT.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER KOSIER/COLLINS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

