

204 

AGNT40 KWNM 030716

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

316 AM EDT WED AUG 3 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



THE LTST GOES IR IMGRY INDC DVLPG LOW PRES E OF THE NE NT2

WATERS...WITH A FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING TO THE SW INTO THE CENTRAL

NT2 WATERS...THEN INLAND NEAR CAPE HATTERAS. CRNT SFC RPRTS INDC

WINDS UP TO 25 KT OVR SRN NT2 IN THE SW FLOW AHD OF THE

FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT IN THE UNSTABLE

ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IT...AS INDC BY THE LGTNG DENSITY PROD. THE

PREV FCST HAD TSTMS OVR NT2...SO PLANNING ON KEEPING THEM IN THE

NEXT FCST PKG. AS FAR AS THE WINDS ARE CONCERNED...ASCAT FM 02Z

IN C NT2 IN THE SW FLOW INDC 20 KT...THO THE PASS MISSED WHERE

CRNT RPRTS INDC 25 KT. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF WINDS ARE INIT 5 TO 10 KT

LOW WHEN COMPARED WITH THE CRNT DATA OFF THE COAST OF SC...SO

PLANNING ON BOOSING WINDS INITIALLY...WHILE STARTING OFF WITH THE

GFS.



THE 00Z MDLS AGREE SOMEWHAT WELL THRUT THE FCST...AND ALL SOLNS

INDC THE FRNTL BNDRY CRNTLY ACRS NT2 WL STALL TDA...AND CONT OVR

NT2 WHILE SLOWLY WKNG. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDC A WK SFC LOW WL

MOVE ALONG THE FRONT OVR SE NT2...AND THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA BY

THU NGT. THE PREV RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS HAD BEEN INCONSISTENT ON

THE DVLPMT OF THE LOW...BUT NOW SEEM TO BE SETTLING INTO THIS CRNT

SOLN. THE 00Z UKMET/GEM BOTH AGREE WELL WITH THE GFS/ECWMF WITH

THE TRACK...THO ARE A BIT STGR. THE PREV FCST FAVORED THE GFS

SOLN...WHICH HAS BEEN CLOSE IN THE PREV FEW RUNS...SO PLANNING ON

STAYING NR IT THE SHORT TERM. ALSO...PLANNING ON USING A 50/50

BLEND OF THE 10M/30M GFS WINDS OVR THE GULF STREAM...TO ACCT FOR

THE LOWER STATIC STABILITY AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING.



IN THE EXTENDED...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM/UKMET REMAIN IN GUD AGRMT

WITH THE NEXT FRNTLY BNDRY TO MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON

SAT...ALTHO THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE 00Z

GFS/GEM SOLNS. AS A RESULT...PLANNING ON USING THE 00Z GFS...BUT

WL SLOW IT BY 3 HOURS AS A COMPROMISE.



SEAS...THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III AND ECMWF WAM BOTH INITIALIZED A FT

OR TWO LOW OFF THE SC COAST...SO WL NEED TO ADJUST SEAS HIGHER IN

THE SHORT RANGE TO ACCT FOR IT. OTRW THE MDLS AGREED FAIRLY WELL

THRUT THE FCST PD...SO PLANNING ON USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO

SOLNS AS A CMPRMS TO THE MINOR DIFFS.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

