

066 

AGNT40 KWNM 021913

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

313 PM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



SUMMARY...12Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTNDG

ROUGHLY E TO W ACROSS THE NRN NT2 WTRS...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK

LOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SFC ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS WEAK

HI PRES RIDGING OVER THE NT1 AND SRN NT2 WTRS. LATEST AVAIL ASCAT

HI-RES AND RAPIDSCAT PASSES FROM THIS MORNING SHOW WINDS OF 25 TO

30 KT IN SW FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL NT2 WTRS...WITH 20 TO 25 KT

WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER ZONES OF THE NT2 WTRS BETWEEN 37N AND 32N.

LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT DATA AT 1840Z SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS

AND TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL NT2 WTRS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND

TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN NT2 WTRS E OF 1000 FATHOMS AND IN THE FAR SRN

NT2 WTRS E OF 77W.



MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...LOW PRES WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE NRN NT2

WTRS THIS AFTERNOON...PASS E OF THE NT2 AREA THIS EVENING...THEN

MOVE OFF TO THE NE TONITE AND WED WHILE STRENGTHENING AND PULLING

A COLD FRONT S OVER THE CENTRAL NT2 WTRS. A WEAK LOW IS EXPCTD TO

FORM NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND CAPE

FEAR ON THU OR THU NITE...THEN PASS NE OVER THE NRN NT2 WTRS FRI

THRU SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST SAT...MOVE

OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NITE...THEN SWEEP SE OVER THE OFSHR

WTRS SUN AND SUN NITE.



MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE

OFSHR WTRS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT THE GEM/UKMET ARE A BIT

FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT ON SUN AND SUN NITE. THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS

ARE IN VRY GUD AGREEMNT...THE GFS HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW VRY GUD

RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST WPC

MED RNG FCSTR GUIDANCE...SO 12Z GFS SOLN IS REPRESENTATIVE ENUF

TO BE USED FOR THE WIND GRIDS THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. WILL BE

USING THE 12Z GFS 30M SOLN OVER THE NT2 WTRS WHERE STRONGER SW

FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE OVER

THE NT1 AREA THE 12Z GFS 10M SOLN WILL BE USED GIVEN THE STABILITY

CONSIDERATIONS. 



SEAS...WNA VERSION OF THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM

BOTH INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. THE 12Z WNA WW3 AND 12Z 

ECMWF WAM ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT THRU THE FCST PERIOD...WITH

ONLY A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED...SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF

THE MODELS OVER THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT THESE

DIFFERENCES.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

