

916 

AGPN40 KWNM 010740

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

1240 AM PDT MON AUG 1 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THE LTST NCEP SFC ANALYSIS INDC A STG PREG GRAD ACRS THE NRN CAL

OFSHR WTRS...AS A WKNG HIGH PRES RDG ACRS PZ5 INTERACTS WITH A LOW

PRES TROF OVR CENTRAL CAL. THE 05Z ASCAT PASSES INDC A LARGE AREA

OF 30 KT WINDS IN THE NRN CAL WTRS...WITH A VERY SMALL AREA OF

GALE FRC WINDS IN THE COASTAL WTRS. CRNT SFC RRPTS STILL INDC UP

TO 30 KT IN THE OFHSR WTRS...BUT SINCE GALES WERE IN THE PREV

FCST IN ZONE PZZ820...PLANNING ON STARTING OFF WITH 30 KT IN THE

OFSHR WATERS. THE 00Z GFS INDC THE WINDS WL SLOWLY WKN TDA...AS

THE RDG AND TROF WKN. THE REST OF THE 00Z MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL

WITH THE 00Z OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE OVERALL PTTN...AND ON

THE STRENGTH OF THE PRES GRAD AND ASSOC WINDS...SO PLANNING ON

USING A BLEND OF THE 10M/30M WINDS WHICH SEEM REPRESENTATIVE...BUT

WL CAP AT 30 KT.



OTRW...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AGREE VRY WELL THRUT THE REMAINDER

OF THE FCST PD...AND INDC A WK CDFNT JUST NW OF THE OFSHR WATERS

WL MOV INTO THE E PAC AND DSIPT OVR PZ5 TDA...FLWD BY A LOW PRES

TROUGH TNGT. THE WK CD SURGE BEHIND THE FRNTS SHUD BE ENUF TO

LOWER STATIC STABILITY...AND ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DN

TWD THE SFC. THE 00Z GFS INDC 35 TO 40 KT AT 925 MB FROM TUE NGT

INTO FRI...WHICH SETS UP AN AREA OF VERT SHEAR JUST W OF CAPE

MENDOCINO. IN ADDITION...THE 00Z MODELS ALL INDC AN H5 VORT CRNTLY

35N135W WL DRIFT E TWD THE COAST BY WED NGT...AND ENHANCE THE

THERMAL TROF OVER THE CAL INTERIOR. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY

INDCG GALES FOR PZZ820 TUE NGT INTO THU NGT...AND THE REST OF THE

00Z GUID INDC ABT THE SAME...THO THE 00Z GEM IS A BIT STGR...AND

IS A STG OUTLIER. THE PREV FCST HAD GALES CONSISTENT WITH THE

GFS...AND CONFDC IS MDT TO HIGH...SO PLANNING ON MAINTAINING WRNG

IN THE NEXT PKG. OTRW WL USE 00Z FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE

FCST...AS IT IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE REST OF THE 00Z MODELS.



.SEAS...THE 00Z WAVEWATCH-III AND ECMWF WAM MODELS ARE INIT A FT

OR TWO LOW IN THE NRN CAL WTRS...BUT OTRW OK IN THE E PAC. THE

MDLS AGREE WELL THRUT THE FCST PD...AND SEEM FAIRLY RSNBL WITH THE

NEXT ROUND OF GALES TUE NGT INTO THU NGT...THO A TAD LOW...SO WL

ADJUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE NRN CAL WATERS.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE TUE NIGHT.

     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU NIGHT. 



$$



.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

