

801 

AGNT40 KWNM 130651

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

251 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF OF

MAINE...WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF AREA. AN

ASCAT PASS FROM LATE FRI EVENING INDICATED THE STRONGEST WINDS IN

THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE JUST TO THE E OF THE GEORGES BACK OFFSHORE

WATERS. OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WINDS WERE IN THE 10 TO 20 KT.

RANGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THE TSTMS

OVER THE GULF OF MAINE HAD WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY WITH NO STRIKES

NOTED AS OF 0515Z.



THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING MOST OF THE FCST

PERIOD...HOWEVER THERE CONTINUE TO BE SOME SUBTLE TIMING

DIFFERENCES ON DAY 5. THE MODELS ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT

INDICATING LOW PRES PASSING N OF THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS TONIGHT

AND SUN...THEN MOVING E OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUN NIGHT. THE MAIN

DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE WED/WED NIGHT AS GFS REMAINS SLOWER

WITH LOW PASSING ACROSS NE U.S. COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THE

ECMWF CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A DECENT COMPROMISE...AND WILL LIKELY

NOT BE MAKING ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO EXISTING GRIDS WHICH WAS

BASED ON 12Z ECMWF WINDS. 



.SEAS...THE 03Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS

CONTINUE TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE MWW3/ECMWF WAM. SIMILAR TO

WINDS...DO NOT PLAN ON MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO SEAS PENDING

THE 00Z ECMWF.





.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

