

079 

AGNT40 KWNM 311852

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

252 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 12Z MDLS OVERALL REMAIN IN RSNBLY

GOOD AGRMT THAT THE STNRY FRONT NOW ACRS THE NRN NT2 WTRS WL

REMAIN NRLY STNRY TONITE THRU TUE WHILE A SERIES OF LOWS TRACK E

ALONG THE FRONT. THE 12Z GLOBAL MDLS THEN GNRLY AGREE THAT THE

STRONGEST AND FINAL FRONTAL LOW WL PASS E OF THE NT2 WTRS TUE NITE

AND PULL THE FRONT S AS A COLD FRONT ACRS THE CNTRL NT2 WTRS. THE

12Z GEM/ECMWF CONT THEIR PREV RESPECTIVE TRENDS OF FCSTG A

STRONGER FINAL FRONTAL LOW THAN THE 12Z NAM/GFE/UKMET. FOR NOW

SMLR TO THE PREV FCST PACKAGE...PLAN ON POPULATING OUR FCST WIND

GRIDS WITH THE REPRESENTATIVE 12Z GFS 10M BL WINDS FOR TONITE THRU

TUE NITE...WITH SM ADDITIONAL EDITS TO BUMP UP THESE WINDS ACRS

THE FAR SE AND FAR NE NT2 WTRS LATE TUE/TUE NITE IN DEFERENCE TO

THE STRONGER 12Z GEM/ECMWF. SO AS A RESULT ANTICIPATE MAKING ONLY

MINOR SHORT TERM CHNGS TO THE PREV OFSHR FCSTS.



IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 12Z MDLS FCST A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TO

DVLP. DISREGARDING THE 12Z GEM SOLUTION...OVERALL THE 12Z

GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE GNRLY IN GOOD AGRMT THAT THE COLD FRONT WL

CONT S INTO THE SRN NT2 WTRS WED...THEN BCM QSTNRY AND GRADLY

WEAKEN WED NITE INTO FRI WITH WEAK ASCD GRADIENTS AND LITE ASCD

WINDS (GNRLY 10-15 KT OR LESS) DVLPG. THEN LATER FRI/FRI NITE THE

12Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ALL FCST A GRADLY STRENGTHENING SSWLY GRADIENT

TO DVLP ACRS THE NRN WTRS AS THE NEXT INLAND COLD FRONT APRCHS FM

THE NW. THEREFORE WL CONT TO POPULATE WITH THE REPRESENTATIVE 12Z

GFS 10M BL WINDS ON WED/WED NITE AND THEN AS A COMPROMISE BTWN

THEIR SMLR SOLUTIONS WL TRANSITION TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS

10M AND 12Z ECMWF BL WINDS ON THU THRU FRI NITE.



SEAS...THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM HV BOTH

INITIALIZED THE CURRENT SEAS THRUT THE WTRS VERY WELL (GNRLY

WITHIN 1 FT). SO WITH THEIR ASCD GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BEING

SMLR...AND WITH THEIR FCST DIFFERENCES GNRLY RMNG IN THE 1-2 FT

RANGE...WL POPULATE OUR FCST WAVE GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE

12Z WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM MDLS TONITE THRU FRI NITE.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. 



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

