

234 

AGPN40 KWNM 110339

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

839 PM PDT WED AUG 10 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



HIGH PRES TO THE W OF THE WA/OR WTRS WL DRIFT NE LATER TNGT AND

THU. THERE WAS A HIGH RESOL RAPID SCAT PASS AT BOTH 23Z AND 01Z

WHICH COVERED WA/OR INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL CA WTRS. MAX WINDS WERE

TO 25 KT ALG THE NRN WA WTRS AND ALSO OVR THE SERN OR INTO THE NRN

CA WTRS. GFS MDL GUID ALSO SUPPORTS THE DATA THIS EVENING. THIS

AREA OF MDT N TO NWLY WINDS CONTS OVR THIS REGION INTO EARLY FRI

WITH LTL DIFFS BETWEEN MDLS. FOR THE UPDATED FCST WL NOT BE MAKING

ANY CHANGES WITH FCST GRIDS LOOKING GOOD THRU THE FCST PD.



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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



AFTN GRIDS AND TEXT WILL BE BASED IN THE 12Z GFS THROUGHOUT -

HOWEVER WILL LIMIT SURFACE WINDS TO 30 KT SUN INTO MONDAY FOR

WATERS ADJACENT TO THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. 



SIMPLE AND SEASONAL PATTERN TAKING SHAPE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 

EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS

EPAC HIGH PRES COMBIMES WITH COASTAL LOW PRES TROF(S) TO CREATE

PERSISTENT N TO NW FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE OPC AOR. INITIALLY

STRONGEST WINDS WILL BUILD INTO THE PZ5 WATERS (WASHINGTON AND

OREGON) TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING S TO MORE

TRADITIONAL AREAS IN THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE NORCAL AND SE OR

COASTS SUN INTO MON. THE 12Z GFS REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH SOLN

WRT TO PRES GRADIENTS AND RESULTANT WINDS SPEEDS WITH GALES IN

THE COASTAL ZONES FROM CAPE BLANCO S TO NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO. WITH

IT BEING TWDS THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY

WITH LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT FROM OTHER GLOBAL 12Z SOLNS...WILL CAP

WINDS TO 30 KT FOR THE OPC AOR AND INNER PZ6/PZ5 WTRS AT THIS

TIME. 



SEAS...WILL USE THE 12Z ENP WW3 INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY...THEN

TRANSITION INTO A 1:1 BLENDED SOLN WITH ECMWF WAM GUIDANCE. THIS

WILL TAMPEN SEAS DOWNWARD ABOUT 2-3 FT SUN INTO MON WHERE GFS

OUTPUTS GALES BUT FORECAST WILL ONLY REFLECT 30 KT PER GLOBAL

CONSENSUS.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.





.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER ROWLAND/COLLINS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

