

773 

AGNT40 KWNM 260720

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

320 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



CRNT LGTNG DENSITY PROD INDC TSTMS ACRS NE NT2 NEAR N WALL OF

GULF STREAM IN W TO SW FLOW...AND ALSO ALONG A LOW PRES TROF NEAR

THE MID ATLC COAST. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDC A MDT AMT OF

INSTABILITY OVR NT2 WITH THE PREDOMINANTLY SW FLOW INJECTING

HEAT/MOISTURE INTO THE PBL. ALSO...THE MDLS INDC A PAIR OF SFC

BNDRYS OVER THE AREA IN THE SHORT RANGE...TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR

CONVECTION...OVR NRN NT2. THE PREV FCST CARRIED SCTRD TSTMS AND

SHOWERS IN NT2...SO PLANNING ON MAINTAINING MENTION IN THE NEXT

PKG.



OTRW...THE 00Z MDLS ALL INDC THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROF WL MOVE

INTO THE AREA EARLY TDA...FLWD BY A FRNTL BNDRY CRNTLY JUST SE OF

THE GREAT LAKES REGION...LATER TDA INTO TNGT. 0235Z ASCAT WIND

RETRIEVALS AND CRNT SFC RPRTS INDC WINDS CRNTLY UP TO 20 KT IN

THE SW FLOW AHD OF THE SFC TROF...AND 0235Z RSCAT WINDS EXTEND A

LTL FURTHER E OVER THE GULF STREAM AND INDC 25 KT. THE 00Z GFS

WNDS ARE INIT OK WHEN COMPARED WITH THE CRNT DATA...AND INDC THAT

THE WINDS WL NOT INCRS ANY FURTHER THAN 25 KT AHEAD OF THE TWO

BNDRYS. THE 00Z GFS AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/NAM/GEM

MDL RUNS WITH THE TMG OF THE BNDRY...BUT IS SLGTLY STGR THAN THE

ECMWF/UKMET...AND A LTL WKR THAN THE 00Z NAM/GEM. ATTM THE GFS

SEEMS TO BE ABT THE BEST CMPRMS SOLN IN THE SHORT RANGE...AND

SEEMS MOST RSNBL...SO PLANNING ON FAVORING IT INTO THU NGT WHICH

KEEPS FCST IN LINE WITH PREV ONE.



THE BIGGEST FCST PROBLEM IS IN THE EXTENDED PD...AS THE 00Z GFS

IS A FAST OUTLIER WITH THE NEXT SYS ON FRI INTO SAT. THE GFS HAD

SLOWED SLIGHTLY TWD THE OVERALL MDL CONSNESUS WITH THE 18Z

RUN...BUT HAS TRENDED FASTER AND AWAY FM IT WITH THE 00Z RUN. IN

ADDITION...THE 00Z UKMET/GEM HAVE TRENDED TWD THE CONSISTENT ECMWF

SOLN...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GEFS/ECWMF/NAEFS MEAN

SOLNS. AS A RESULT...PLANNING ON FAVORING THE 00Z ECMWF SOLN FROM

FRI 06Z ONWARD...THO WL BOOST WINDS INVOF THE GULF STREAM WHERE

THE ECMWF WINDS SEEMS A BIT LOW. 



.SEAS...BOTH THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III AND ECMWF WAM MDLS HV BOTH

INITIALIZED THE CURRENT W ATLC WAVE HEIGHTS VERY WELL...WITH WV

HTS CRNTLY 6 FT OR LESS IN THE W ATLC. THE MDLS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT INTO FRI...SO PLANNING ON USING 00Z WW3 UNTIL THEN. WL

THEN SWITCH TO 00Z ECMWF WAVE SOLN BY 06Z FRI...TO REFLECT

PREFERRED WX MDL TRENDS. ALSO...WW3 BUILDS SEAS FASTER THAN THE

ECMWF WAM...AS A RESULT OF STGR WINDS WITH THE FASTER LOW...SO

PREFER TO STAY AWAY FM IT ATTM. 



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. 



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

