

885 

AGNT40 KWNM 290729

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

329 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



SUMMARY...00Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS T.D. EIGHT CENTERED ABOUT

30 NM E OF THE SRN NT2 WTRS...WITH T.D. NINE CENTERED ABOUT 80 NM

SW OF KEY WEST...AND HURCN GASTON CENTERED ABOUT 500 NM E SE OF

BERMUDA. REFER TO LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

ON T.D. EIGHT/T.D. NINE/HURCN GASTON. LATEST AVAILABLE ASCAT AND

ASCAT HI-RES PASSES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING DID NOT GIVE ANY

COVERAGE OVER T.D. EIGHT...BUT DO SHOW AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IN

THE OUTER ZONES OF THE SRN NT2 WTRS. LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT

DATA AT 0630Z SHOWS A FEW SMALL AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND

TSTMS...INCLUDING ON THE WRN SIDE OF T.D. EIGHT.



MODELS...00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE

OFSHR WTRS DURING THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT THE 00Z ECMWF IS A BIT

FASTER AND STRONGER WITH T.D. NINE ON FRI AND FRI NITE. 00Z

UKMET LOOKS CLOSE TO ECMWF/GFS WITH TIMING/TRACKS OF T.D. EIGHT

AND T.D. NITE...BUT IS GENERALLY MUCH STRONGER WITH THESE SYSTEMS.

00Z GEM IS SLOWER AND SIGNIF STRONGER THAN THE OTHER MDLS WITH

T.D. NINE. LATEST NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FCSTS FOR T.D. EIGHT AND

T.D. NITE LOOK CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS...ALTHO THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO

WEAK WITH THESE SYSTEMS AND WILL NEED TO BE BEEFED UP WHEN DOING

THE WIND GRIDS. AM PLANNING TO USE THE 00Z GFS 30M SOLN FOR THE

WIND GRIDS DURING THE FCST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE NO

MAJOR CHANGES TO THE UPCOMING FCST TRACKS FOR T.D. EIGHT AND T.D.

NINE.



SEAS...BOTH THE 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH III MDL AND THE 00Z ECMWF WAM

INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. IN GENERAL THE 00Z ECMWF WAM

LOOKS UNDERDONE IN THE NT2 AREA FOR TODAY INTO THU...AND THE MORE

ROBUST 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH III IS PREFERRED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. 00Z

WNA WAVEWATCH III/ECWMF WAM LOOK DIFFERENT OVER THE SRN NT2 WTRS

FOR THU NITE THRU FRI NITE WITH THEIR HANDLING OF T.D. NINE...AND

SINCE DO NOT HAVE A PREFERRED WAVE HT MDL FOR THIS PERIOD WILL GO

WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MDLS HERE AS AN ATTEMPT AT SMOOTHING OUT

THE MDL DIFFS.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE WED.

.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. 

.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. 

.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...

     TROPICAL STORM TUE.

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...

     TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT INTO TUE. 

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...

     TROPICAL STORM TODAY INTO TUE. 

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. 

.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...

     TROPICAL STORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 



$$



.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

