

241 

AGNT40 KWNM 282053

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

453 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.





THE SAT IMG INDC HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE NRN WATERS. THE

OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING ASCAT ABOUT 1515Z SHOW HIGHER WINDS OVER

S-ERN PARTS. AT 18Z STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL

WATERS AND THE PRES GRADIENT IS FAIRLY SLACK OVER MOST OF THE

FORECAST WATERS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT JUST E OF THE SRN

WATERS WILL MOVE WNW ACROSS THE WATERS TWD THE SC COAST. SEE THE

NHC FOR MORE AND LATEST INFORMATION ON TD EIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE

INITIALIZED JUST OK THE 18Z OBSERVATIONS AND THEY HAVE SOME

DIFFERENCES ON THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF TD EIGHT IN THE SHORT

TERM. GFS AND ECMWFHR HAVE TD EIGHT MOVING TWD THE SC COAST AND SO

ARE CMC/UKMETHR BUT THE LATER INDC MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM AS IT

MOVES NE AND PASSES THRU THE BALT CANYON. FOR THE 12Z RUN GFS NOW

HAS WINDS LESS THAN THE ASCAT BY 5 KT IN THE N SECTOR OF THE

DEPRESSION WHERE THE ASCAT SUGGESTED HIGHER WINDS WITH CMC AND

UKMETHR BEING LESS BY 10 KT. THE OTHER DIFFRENCES ARE ON ANOTHER

SYNOP SYSTEM THAT HAS POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO THE SRN WATERS FROM

THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IN ADDITION...

GFS/CMC/UKMETHR/ECMWFHR/NOGAPS/JMA MODELS HAVE NOT AGREED WELL ON

THE OTHER LOWS THAT WILL DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE WX OVER THE WATERS

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WITH ALL THE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS

WILL POP GRIDS WITH GFS JUST AS THE BASIS AND THEN ADJUST THE

WINDS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF TD EIGHT.



.SEAS...THE SEAS RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 FT ACROSS THE WATERS AND NWW3

MULTI GRID FITS WELL WITH THE OBSERVED SEAS PATTERN EXCEPT IN

AREAS AROUND TD EIGHT. NWW3 IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE ECMWFWAVE MODEL.

BOTH WAVE MODELS ARE UNDERDONE NEAR AND AROUND THE TROPICAL

DEPPRESION AND SO WILL ADJUST SEAS AROUND THE TD. OTHERWISE WILL

START OF WITH NWW3 AS THE MAIN WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE.







.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.





.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.

.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. 

.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU. 

.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU. 

.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. 

.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. 

.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...

     TROPICAL STORM MON NIGHT.

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE.

.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...

     TROPICAL STORM MON NIGHT.

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. 



$$



.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

