

706 

AGPN40 KWNM 010229

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

729 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HIGH PRES CENTERED W OF

THE PZ6 WATERS CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH INLAND LOW PRES OVER

SRN CALIFORNIA TO PRODUCE NW WINDS UP TO 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF

SRN CALIFORNIA WITH THE HIGHEST CONDITIONS W OF POINT CONCEPTION.

THE STRONGEST CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT N TO OFF THE COAST OF NRN

CALIFORNIA BY FRI WITH THE HIGHEST CONDITIONS OF 30 KT W OF POINT

REYES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON.

FARTHER N...ONE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE

WASHINGTON WATERS THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WITH WINDS UP TO 25

KT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PZ5 WATERS

BY MON. FOR WIND GRIDS WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS 10M WINDS

THROUGHOUT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO

CARRY NO WARNINGS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE FORECAST

PERIOD.



THE NWW3 LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE SEAS AND WILL BE FOLLOWED

FAIRLY CLOSELY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.



EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



THE ASCAT PASS FROM 17Z SHOWS WINDS 15 TO 25 KT ALONG THE CENTRAL

AND SRN CA CST...WHILE GENERALLY 10-20 KT OCCUR ELSEWHERE. SEAS

ARE RUNNING 5-9 FT OVER MUCH OF AREA. BUOY 46005 RPT 9 FT AT 20Z.

MAX SEAS ARE ALSO NR 9 FT OVR THE SERN CA WATERS...S OF PT

CONCEPTION. THE OVERALL FCST PHILOSOPHY HASNT CHANGED MUCH IN THE

PAST FEW DAYS. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE

WA AND OR WATERS AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL FEATURES CROSS THE

AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH AREAS OF

HIGH PRES. FURTHER S...THE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CA WATERS

WILL CONTINUE VERY STABLE THROUGHOUT THE 7 DAY PERIOD AS AS

PERSISTANT TROF REMAINS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA CST...REMAINING THE

FOCAL POINT FOR HIGHER WINDS. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN CENTERED W OF

HTE WATERS...BUT OCCASION RIDGE AXIS WILL POKE THEIR WAY INTO THE

REGION...EXPECIALLY IN THE TRADITIONAL FAVORED PLACE ACROSS THE NW

PORTION. THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL OCCCUR

IN THE COASTAL ZONES WITH GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE...BUT 30 KT ARE

DEFINITE IN LOCALIZED AREAS. WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP MAX WINDS TO 25

KT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH STRONGEST WINDS OCCURING OVR

THE INNER ZONES. 



THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE

FIRST FEW DAYS...THEN DIFFER SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE WEEEK...MAINLY

IN THE NRN WATERS WHERE THE SPEED OF THE FRONTAL BNDRIES DIFFER

AMONG THE MODELS. WILL CONTINUIE CONTINUITY AND POP THE WIND GRIDS

USING THE 10M GFS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS

TO KEEP WINDS TO 25 KT.



SEAS...BOTH WAM AND ENP INITIALIZED WELL ACROSS THE REGION AND ARE

REASONABLE THROUGHOUT. WILL POP WAVE GRIDS USING THE ENP FOR THE 7

DAY PERIOD.



EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.





.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER NOLT/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

