

738 

AGPN40 KWNM 271459

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

759 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



AT 12Z A 1013 MB LOW WAS OVER THE NRN CA WATERS W/A HIGH PRES

RIDGE OVER THE REST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. WILL NOT MAKE

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST IN PLACE IN THIS

INTERMEDIATE UPDATE.



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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



00Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL POPULATE WIND GRIDS WITH 10M WINDS FROM THE 00Z GFS INTO 12Z

TUE...THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE 00Z ECWMF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD...AS MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED OVER THE NRN WATERS. 



LOWER PRESSURES NEAR VANCOUVER ISLAND INTERACTING WITH HIGH PRES

TO THE W AND KEEPING WINDS TO 30 KT JUST N OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

LATEST ASCAT PASS DOES INDICATE 30 KT WINDS ALONG VANCOUVER ISLAND

AND JUST N OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. PATTERN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN

TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING DURING THIS TIME

PERIOD. 



WEAK COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PZ5 WATERS SUN

NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...AND INTO THE NRN PZ6 TUE BEFORE

DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PZ6 WATERS EARLY TUE

NIGHT. MAX WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO BE

IN THE 20 KT RANGE...WITH WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 15 KT EXPECTED

BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF TROF

MOVING INTO THE NRN PZ5 WATERS WED AND WED NIGHT...AND PREFER THE

ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE

UKMET.



TROF SETS UP ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA COAST MON NIGHT

AND TUE...AND PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH

PRES RIDGE TO THE W WILL INCREASE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. AT

THIS TIME...MAX WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 25 KT RANGE OVER THE

OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE IN THE ADJACENT

COASTAL WATERS.  



.SEAS...WWIII ENP WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS. WILL

POPULATE WAVE GRIDS FROM 00Z ENP UNTIL 12Z TUE...THEN SWITCH TO

THE 00Z ECMWF WAVE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. 





.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.







.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER HOLLEY/ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

