

336 

AGPN40 KWNM 290953

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

253 AM PDT FRI JUL 29 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 00Z MDLS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN

RSNBLY GOOD AGRMT THAT THE STRONG SFC HIGH PRES CENTER WITH A MAIN

CENTER NR 41N145W WL SLOWLY SHIFT WNW WITH LTLCHG IN STRENGTH THRU

SAT NITE WHILE A SFC TROF REMAINS IN PLACE INLAND CALIFORNIA. IN

THE NLY GRADIENT BTWN THESE TWO SYSTEMS...THE 00Z NAM/GFS/GEM

CONTINUE TO FCST GALE FORCE BL WINDS ACRS THE NRN MOST PZ6 AND SE

MOST PZ5 WTRS THRU SAT NITE...WHL THE USUALLY CONSERVATIVE 00Z

UKMET/ECMWF FCST SOLID 25-30 KT BL WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS

OF MARGINAL GALE FORCE WINDS. 00Z NAM/GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT VS

THEIR PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS AND THE OTHER 00Z GLOBAL MDLS IN

MAINTAINING THE FCST STRENGTH OF THE NLY GRADIENT WITH MARGINAL

GALES OFF THE NRN PZ6 AND SRN PZ5 WTRS THRU SAT NITE AND INTO SUN. 

FURTHER N THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF CONT THEIR PREV RESPECTIVE TRENDS OF

FCSTG AN UPR SHORT WAVE TROF TO PASS N OF THE PZ5 WTRS LATE TODAY

INTO SAT THAT WL CAUSE AN INLAND SFC TROF TO DVLP WHICH WL RESULT

IN THE NNWLY GRADIENT ACRS THE NERN PZ5 WTRS TO STRENGTHEN TO GALE

FORCE LATE FRI AND PERSIST INTO EARLY SAT NITE. ALSO THE 00Z

GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL INDICATE A WK CD SURGE BEHIND AN ASCD CD FNTL

PASSAGE IN NRN WTRS WHICH WL ACT TO LOWER STATIC STABILITY OVR

PZ5 AREA...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES TO MIX DOWN IS HIGH. AS WAS

DONE PREVIOUSLY...PLAN ON POPULATING OUR FCST WIND GRIDS WITH A

50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS 30M AND 10M BL WINDS FOR TODAY THRU SAT

NIGHT...AS THESE CONDS APPR TO MATCH THE LATEST HI RES ASCAT-B

PASS. THIS WL RESULT IN NO MAJOR CHNGS TO THE PREVLY FCSTD GALE

WRNGS.

 

IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 00Z GLOBAL MDLS....ESPCLY THE 00Z

GFS/ECMWF...ARE IN RSNBLY GOOD AGRMT AND SHARE SMLR FCST TIMING

FOR A CLOSED UPR LOW TO APRCH FM THE WNW SUN...THEN CROSS THE NRN

PZ5 WTRS SUN NITE/MON WHICH WL SPRT A DSIPTG COLD FRONT TO PUSH

INTO THE PZ5 WTRS LATE SUN INTO MON WHICH ALLOW THE NLY GRADIENT

TO GRADLY WEAKEN TO BELOW GALE FORCE FIRST ACRS THE PZ5 WTRS SAT

NITE AND THEN ACRS THE PZ6 WTRS LATE SUN AND SUN NITE. THEN TO

SLIGHTLY VARYING DEGREES ALL OF THE 12Z GLOBAL MDLS THEN FCST A

SFC HIGH TO STRENGTHEN W OF THE PZ5 WTRS LATE MON NITE INTO TUE

NITE WHICH WL AGAIN CAUSE THE NLY GRADIENT TO GRADLY RESTRENGTHEN

THRUT THE PZ5 AND NRN PZ6 WTRS...LKLY REACHING GALE FORCE AGAIN

ACRS THE NRN PZ6 WTRS LATE TUE OR TUE NITE. SO PLAN ON CONTG TO

POPULATE WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE STILL REPRESENTATIVE 00Z GFS

30M AND 10M BL WINDS FOR SUN THRU TUE NITE.

  

.SEAS...OVERALL THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM OFFER

SIMILAR SOLNS..ALTHO APPR 1-2 FT LOW WITH MAX SEAS AS WAS THE

CASE SINCE LATE YESTERDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND AND WITH THEIR ASCD

GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS BEING SMLR AND WITH THEIR FCST DIFFERENCES

GNRLY RMNG IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE...PLAN ON POPULATING OUR FCST WAVE

GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF

WAM MDLS FOR TONITE THRU TUE NITE WITH CONDS BOOSTED 10 PCT IN

GALE AREAS.

 

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. 



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...

     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. 

.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...

     GALE TODAY INTO SAT NIGHT. 

     GALE POSSIBLE SUN.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE TODAY INTO SAT NIGHT. 

     GALE POSSIBLE SUN.

     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.



$$



.FORECASTER BANCROFT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

