

898 

AGNT40 KWNM 020703

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

303 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



NOTE: OPC IS PROVIDING POST-TROPICAL FORECAST SUPPORT TO NHC FOR

HURRICANES GASTON AND HERMINE...SO THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE BRIEF.

IN REGARDS TO FCST TRACK OF HERMINE...THE NEW 00Z MDLS ARE ALL IN

RSNBLY GOOD AGRMT THAT THE SYSTEM WL TRACK NE TO NEAR OF JUST

INLAND ALONG THE S THEN N CAROLINA COASTS BY LATE TODAY INTO

TONITE...THEN MOVE NE OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST SAT TO THE VCNTY OF

36.5N 72.5W BY 04/00Z. AT THIS TIME THE 00Z GEFS MEAN INDICATES

THAT THE 00Z GFS 48HR POSITION MAY BE TOO FAR E WHICH IS ALSO

INDICATED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THEN AS THE SYSTEM IS FCST TO GET

CAPTURED BY A CLOSED UPR LOW...TO VARYING DEGREES THE 00Z MDLS ALL

FCST THE SYSTEM TO PERFORM A TIGHT CYCLONIC LOOP SAT NITE INTO SUN

NITE (WITH THE 00Z GEM/UKMET SWINGING THEIR LOW FURTHER E THAN THE

00Z GFS)...BCM QSTNRY MON INTO MON NITE IN THE VCNTY OF 39N

71.5W...THEN DRIFT SLOWLY ENE TUE/TUE NITE (THO THE 00Z GFS FCSTS

ITS LOW TO BCM QSTNRY FURTHER W THAN THE OTHER 00Z GLOBAL MDLS

WHICH PER THE 00Z GEFS MEAN MAY BE TOO FAR W). FOR NOW IF FORCE TO

CHOOSE WULD FAVOR A BLENDED 00Z GEFS MEAN/ECMWF TRACK THRU SAT

NITE. THEN WOULD FAVOR A COMPROMISE 00Z GFS/ECMWF TRACK FOR SUN

INTO TUE NITE AS THE DIFFERENCES BTWN THEIR FCST TRACKS NARROW. SO

AGAIN DUE TO THE SLOW EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF HERMINE AS IT TRACKS

INTO THE NT2 WTRS...DO NOT EXPECT NHC TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHNGS IN

THEIR NEXT FCST ADVSRY.



.SEAS...THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM HV BOTH

INITIALIZED THE CURRENT SEAS WELL...THO THE SLIGHTLY LOWER 00Z

WAVEWATCH III LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER AT THE MOMENT. DEPENDING ON

THE NEXT NHC ADVSRY AM LEANING AT THE MOMENT OF POPULATING WITH A

50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO WAVE MDLS THRU TUE NITE.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...WITH ALL OF THE 00Z MODELS

FCSTG HERMINE TO SLOW AND NEARLY STALL OFF THE NRN MID ATLC AND

SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS SUN INTO TUE...THERE IS A HIGH LIKLIHOOD

THAT A SIGNIFICANT SURGE EVENT WILL DEVELOP. WULD CONT TO FAVOR

THE HIGHER SURGE VALUES FCST BY THE 00Z ESTOFS VS THE 00Z ETSS

THEN. 



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.

.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. 

.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. 



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...

     TROPICAL STORM SAT.

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. 

.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...

     TROPICAL STORM SAT.

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. 

.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...

     TROPICAL STORM SAT.

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. 

.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. 

.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. 

.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...

     TROPICAL STORM SAT.

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO MON. 

.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...

     TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT INTO SAT. 

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. 

.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...

     TROPICAL STORM SAT.

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO MON. 

.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...

     TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT INTO SAT. 

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. 

.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...

     TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT INTO SAT. 

.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...

     TROPICAL STORM SAT.

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...

     TROPICAL STORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 



$$



.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

