

862 

AGPN40 KWNM 120311

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

811 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



HIGH PRES RMNS CNTRD TO THE W OF THE WA/OR THIS EVENING WHILE A WK

TROF XTNDED FM CA INTO OR. MDL GUID HAS STGST WINDS OVR THE OFFSHR

WTRS OVR THE WA/OR WTRS THIS EVENING AND OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS

INTO SAT. THERE WAS A HIGH RESOL RAPID SCAT PASS AT 00Z THIS

EVENING WITH A SWATH ACRS THE WA/OR WTRS. THE HIGHEST WINDS WERE

TO 25 KT OVR THE WRN WA/OR WTRS WHICH AGREES WELL WITH THE 30M GFS

WINDS.



MDL GUID DOES SHOW COASTAL TROF REDEVELOPING OVR NRN CA AND

INTENSIFYING SUN NGT INTO MON WITH THE HIGH PRES BECOMING STGR

LATER FM MON INTO TUE. THE GFS IS QUICKER WITH DVLPG GALES WHILE

THE UKMET/ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH PTNL GALES LATER FM ABT MON NGT

INTO TUE. FOR THE UPDATED FCST WL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES FOR NOW TO

FCST GRIDS...AND REEVALUATE WHEN 00Z MDL GUID COMES IN.





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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



AT 18Z A HIGH PRES RIDGE CONTINUED OVER THE WA/OR/CA WATERS W/A

LOW PRES TROUGH INLAND OVER NRN/CENTRAL CA. AVAILABLE DATA FROM A

1744Z ASCAT HIRES PASS REVEALED 10-20 KT WINDS OVER THE WA/OR

WATERS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL CA WATERS.



12Z GUIDANCE WAS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SO FAVORED 12Z GFS WINDS

OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRES IN THE EPAC WILL CONTINUE TO

EXTEND ITS RIDGE INTO THE WA/OR/CA WATERS THROUGH THE 5 DAY PERIOD

W/A LOW PRES TROUGH ALONG THE CA COAST STRENGTHENING SUN THROUGH

TUE. DECIDE TO USE 12Z GFS 30M WINDS FROM MON 12Z THROUGH TUE

09Z DURING SOME OF THE STRONGEST INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES

RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROUGH. 12Z ECMWF HAD PERIOD OF 30 KT WINDS

FOR ROUGHLY THE SAME PERIOD ALSO. SO THIS RESULTED IN ADDING A

BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES MON IN THE NE CA WATERS. 12Z GFS CONTINUED

TO SUGGEST GALES INTO TUE DAY 5 W/THE 12Z ECMWF HAVING 30 KT WINDS

ALSO. HOWEVER AM NORMALLY NOT A FAN OF ADDING GALES TO DAY 5 IN

THE FORECAST SO FOR NOW MAX WINDS IN THE NE CA WATERS AT 30 KT.



.SEAS...FAVORED 12Z NWW3 OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT BOOSTED SEAS

BY 10 PERCENT MON 12Z THROUGH TUE 09Z TO ACCOUNT FOR USE OF 12Z

GFS 30M WINDS FOR THE SAME PERIOD.





.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.







.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE POSSIBLE MON INTO MON NIGHT. 



$$



.FORECASTER ROWLAND/HOLLEY. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

