

668 

AGNT40 KWNM 220743

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

343 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN OVR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE

FCST WILL BE THE LOCALLY VERY GUSTY WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS IN

OR NEAR ANY OF THE HEAVIER TSTMS CURRENTLY OVR PORTIONS OF THE NRN

AND CENTRAL NT2 OFF WTRS. THESE TSTMS ARE OCCURRING NR A COLD

FRONT WHICH IS CROSSING THE NT1 AND NW NT2 WTRS CURRENTLY. THE

ASCAT OVERPASSES FROM LAST EVE INDICATED WINDS NR 35 KTS IN AND

NEAR THE TSTMS AND THIS TYPE OF WIND GUST IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH

THESE STORMS AS THE CROSS THE WTRS TODAY. THE LATEST RADAR...

SATELLITE...LIGHTNING DENSITY IMAGERY INDICATES THE HEAVIER TSTMS

EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF CAPE HATTERAS E-NE OVR CENTRAL AND NRN

NT2 WTRS OR MAINLY OVR THE OFF ZONES OF ANZ920...ANZ925...FAR NW

ANZ930...AND THEN W OVR ANZ830. THE LATEST SREF TSTM GUIDANCE

INDICATES THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY TSTMS FROM THESE ZONES AND

POINTS E AND S TODAY...NR THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FCST TO

STALL OVR THE FAR SRN NT2 WTRS TONITE...AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN

TUE AND TUE NITE AS HIGH PRES OVERSPREADS MOST OF THE REGION. THE

FRONT WILL THEN LKLY DISSIPATE WED AS THE HIGH PRES AREA

DOMINATES THE WTRS. FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE WE WILL STAY CLOSE

TO THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS THROUGH WED...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ONLY

MINOR CHANGES FROM THE PREV FEW OPC FCSTS. OVERALL...THE 00Z

GLOBAL MDLS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT OVR THE REGION THRU

WED.



LONG TERM...BY EARLY THU...POST-TROPICAL FIONA...WILL BE

APPROACHING A PSN NR 30N67W PER THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY...AND

THEN REACH NR 31N68W BY EARLY THU NITE AS IT DISSIPATES. THIS

LOCATION IS ROUGHLY 200 NM SW OF BERMUDA...OR 250 NM SE OF THE

OFF WTRS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLS SEE THE LATEST ADVISORY

FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR

AS IF IT WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON CONDITIONS OVR THE OFF

WTRS OVR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. FOR THE EARLY AM

PACKAGE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS OVR THE

LONG TERM...AS THE 00Z GLBL MDLS REMAIN IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT OVR

THE WTRS RIGHT THRU FRI NITE. THE HIGH PRES AREA NOTED IN THE

SHORT TERM PART OF THE FCST WILL WEAKEN OVR THE WTRS THU INTO FRI

AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL

PASS INTO NT1...AND POSSIBLY FAR NW NT2 WTRS OVERNITE FRI. WE

WILL REDUCE THE SW WINDS BY 5-10 PERCENT OVR SO OVR NRN NT1 WTRS

LATE THU INTO FRI AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVER-FORECASTING THESE

WINDS SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LATEST GFS WIND BIAS FOR THIS REGION.



.SEAS...BOTH THE 00Z WNA WAVE WATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM WAVE

MDLS ARE VERY SIMILAR OVR THE WTRS THRU WED NITE. THEREFORE WE SEE

NO NEED TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE 00Z WW3 INTO WED NITE. FOR THU

INTO FRI NITE WE WILL USE A BLEND OF THE WW3 AND WAM MDLS AS THE

WW3 APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH IN THE SW FLOW OVR NT1 WTRS

THU INTO FRI.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

