

103 

AGPN40 KWNM 040732

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

1232 AM PDT SUN SEP 4 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



SUMMARY...00Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INLAND LOW PRES TROF

OVER CALIFORNIA...WITH A HI PRES RIDGE BUILDING E AND NE TOWARDS

THE WEST COAST OF CONUS. LATEST AVAILABLE ASCAT HI-RES PASSES FROM

EARLIER TONITE INDICATE N TO NW WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT IN THE SRN

OREGON/NRN CALIFORNIA COASTAL WTRS...AND ALSO OVER THE ADJACENT

INNER ZONES OF THE NRN PZ6 WTRS.



MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...RELATIVELY WEAK LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO

SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE EPAC RIDGE AND PASS SE ACROSS THE PZ5

AREA LATE MON INTO TUE...THEN AGAIN WED INTO THU. OTHERWISE THE

CALIFORNIA TROF AND THE EPAC RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST

PERIOD AND PRODUCE ROBUST N TO NW FLOW OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL

CALIFORNIA OFSHR/COASTAL WTRS.



MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VERY GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT

ACROSS THE OFSHR/COASTL WTRS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT THE 00Z 

CANADIAN GEM LOOKS OVERDONE WITH THE N TO NW FLOW FOR MON NITE

INTO THU NITE. 00Z GFS 30M SOLN LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE AT TIMES

WITH THE STRENGTH OF N TO NW FLOW SO WILL USE THE REPRESENTATIVE

00Z GFS 10M SOLN FOR THE WIND GRIDS OVER THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. 

AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST

TREND.



SEAS...THE 00Z ENP WAVEWATCH III MDL AND THE 00Z ECMWF BOTH LOOK

REASONABLE WITH THE SEA HTS THRU THU NITE...AND ARE ALSO IN VERY

GOOD OVERALL AGREEMNT. WILL USE THE 00Z ENP WAVEWATCH III MDL FOR

THE WAVE HT GRIDS THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

