

488 

AGNT40 KWNM 240719

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

319 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



SUMMARY...00Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE

BUILDING E OVER THE OFSHR WTRS...WITH A COLD FRONT E OF THE OFSHR

ZONES EXTDNG IN THE WTRS BETWEEN THE NT2 AREA AND BERMUDA. LATEST

AVAILABLE ASCAT AND ASCAT HI-RES PASSES FROM EARLIER TONITE SHOW

WINDS TO 20 KT IN NE FLOW OVER THE SRN NT2 ZONES AND OVER THE

INNER ZONES NEAR CAPE HATTERAS...BUT ELSEWHERE IN THE OFSHR WTRS

INDICATES ONLY LIGHT WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS. LIGHTNING DENSITY

PRODUCT DATA AT 0650Z SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND

TSTMS JUST S OF THE NT2 AREA...BUT NO ACTIVITY OVER THE OFSHR

WTRS.



MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...THE WEAK SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPCTD TO

CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD...WITH WINDS NOT EXPCTD TO EXCEED

25 KT. A RIDGE WILL PASS SLOWLY E OVER THE OFSHR WTRS TODAY INTO

FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE NW FRI...THEN

MOVE SE OVER THE OFSHR WTRS FRI NITE INTO SAT NITE WHILE

WEAKENING. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD SE OVER THE OFSHR WTRS LATE

SAT INTO SUN...THEN PERSIST SUN NITE.



MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS

THE OFSHR WTRS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS 10M SOLN LOOKS

REPRESENTATIVE ENUF TO BE USED FOR THE WIND GRIDS THRU AT LEAST

SUN NITE. AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT

FCST TREND.



SEAS...THE 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH III AND ECMWF WAM BOTH INITIALIZED

WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS VERSUS THE RA1 SEA STATE ANALYSIS. THE

MDLS BOTH LOOK REASONABLE AND GENERALLY STAY WITHIN 1 OR 2 FEET

OF EACH OTHER THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD...SO WILL USE A 50/50

BLEND OF THE 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH III/ECMWF WAM FOR THE WAVE HT

GRIDS AS A COMPRIMISE SOLN.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

