

502 

AGPN40 KWNM 292035

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

135 PM PDT FRI JUL 29 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THE SAT IMG INDC FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION BUT ALMOST

NO REPORTS OF LIGHTNING STRIKES. ALL THE OBSERVATIONS INDC HIGHER

WINDS OVER THE NRN CAL AND SRN OREG WATERS. AT 18Z INLAND TROF

EXTENDS NW FROM LOW PRES OVER SRN CAL INTO THE SRN OREG. HIGH PRES

1034 MB W OF THE WATERS NR 42N145W HAS ITS RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE

REGION. THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHT OVER THE NRN CAL AND SRN OREG

WATERS BUT QUITE SLACK ELSEWHERE.



MOST OF THE ENERGY IS JUST E OF AN UPPERLEVEL HIGH PRES CENTERED

NR 40N140W. THERE IS ANOTHER UPPERLEVEL HIGH PRES INLAND OVER THE

S-WRN STATES. THE TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRES HAVE CAUSED A SLOW DOWN

ON THE MOVEMENT OF OTHER SYNOP FEATURES. MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL

CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND THE CNTRAL WATERS AND THAT WILL MAINTAIN

THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC FEATURES PATTERN. AS THE ENERGY SLOWLY SHIFTS

E OF THE WATERS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AN UPPERLEVEL HIGH WILL

MOVE E INTO THE WATERS AND THAT WILL FORCE A RELAXED PRES GRADIENT

AND ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE WARNING THRESHOLD.

 

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED VERY WELL AND THEY ARE IN

GENERALLY A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FEW SYNOP FEATURES THAT ARE

CONTROLLING THE WX OVER THE REGION. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST

WITHOUT MAJOR CHNAGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WILL STAY WITH

JUST GFS. IN THE SHORT TERM HGH PRES WILL REMAIN TO THE W AS

INLAND TROF PERSITS OVER CAL. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN

THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE

EXTENDED PERIOD.



.SEAS...THE SEAS PEAK AT 12 FT OVER THE CENTRAL REGION AND THEY

RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 OVER THE FAR SRN AND NRN WATERS. THE JASON

SWATHS AT 1712Z AND 1915Z MISSED THE CENTRAL WATERS BUT INDC SEAS

TO 5 FT OVER THE FAR NRN AND FAR SRN WATERS. THE NWW3 MULTI GRID

WAVE MODEL FITS FAIRLY WELL WITH THE OBSERVED SEAS PATTERN AND HAS

BEEN VERY CONSSISTENT. WILL STAY WITH ENP. IN THE SHORT TERM THE

SEAS WILL REMAIN LARGE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS WITH PEAKS TO 15 FT

WHILE SEAS WILL JUST SUBSIDE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD TO PEAKS AT 13

FT.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...

     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. 

.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...

     GALE TONIGHT.

.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...

     GALE TONIGHT INTO SUN. 



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE TODAY INTO SUN. 

     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.

     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. 

.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE SAT.



$$



.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

