

816 

AGPN40 KWNM 100333

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

833 PM PDT TUE AUG 9 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



HIGH PRES WAS W AND NW OF THE OFFSHR WTRS THIS EVENING WITH A TROF

ALG CNTRL AND NRN CA. MDL GUID AND OBS INDICATE STGST WINDS WERE

ALG THE ERN AREAS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL CA WTRS. WINDS WERE TO 30

KT IN THIS REGION. THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF ARE SMLR WITH COASTAL TROF

SLOWLY XPNDS NWD INTO OR BY LATE WED AND WED NGT WITH THE AREA OF

STGR WINDS SHIFTING FURTHER N INTO OR/WA WTRS BY LATE WED AND WED

NGT. FOR THE UPDATED FCST HAV DROPPED GALES OVR THE ERN NRN CA

WTRS AND WL HAV WINDS TO 30 KT OVR THE THIS AREA AND ELSW WITH

THE STGST PRES GRAD...AND THEN TO 25 KT ON WED. FOR THE UPDATED

FCST WL BE MAKING FEW CHANGES TO THE PREV FCST WHICH LOOKS GOOD.



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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



BASED ON SIMPLE PREVAILING PATTERN...CONSISTENT FORECAST

CYCLES...AND GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS SEE NO

REASON TO STRAY FROM 12Z GFS OUTPUT THRU THE ENTIRETY OF THE

FORECAST.



METOP-B ASCAT OVERPASS JUST BEFORE 18Z RETURNED A LARGE SWATH OF

20-30 KT WINDS OVER THE NOR CAL INNER WATERS ALONG WITH SEVERAL

SHIP OBS PROVIDING GROUND TRUTH IN THE SAME VICINITY AS THE

SATELLITE SENSED WINDS. IMMEDIATE / NEAR TERM THE STRONGEST

GRADIENTS TO OCCUR WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN DIURNAL HEATING

CYCLE...AND WILL CONT TO CARRY MARGINAL GALE HEADLINES INTO THE

LATE EVE HOURS FOR ZNS 820 AND 825 WITH THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

AS USUAL BEST CHANCES FOR GALES REMAINS WITHIN THE COASTAL ZNS.



OTHERWISE THRU END OF THE FCST PERIOD: HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS WILL

SHIFT MORE NE WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH SUN NIGHT...AS COASTAL

LOPRES TROF EXPANDS ALONG THE WA/OR COASTLINE. ACCORDINGLY THE

STRONGEST GRADIENTS (20 TO 30 KT) WILL ALSO SHIFT N TO THE PZ5

WATERS THU THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LATE IN THE PERIOD SUN/SUN NIGHT

GUIDANCE REDEVELOPS COASTAL LOW PRES TROF ALONG THE NORCAL COAST

ONCE AGAIN SHIFTING STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NRN PZ6 AREAS.



SEAS...BOTH 12Z ENP/WAM LOOK TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRUT THE

FORECAST PERIOD. PREV SHIFT OPTED FOR A 1:1 BLENDED SOLN TO IRON

OUT ANY MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO SOLNS...AND WILL FOLLOW

SUIT THIS AFTN. 



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.





.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER ROWLAND/COLLINS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

