

025 

AGNT40 KWNM 272035

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

435 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



THE SAT IMG STILL INDC A HIGH PRES RIDGE TO THE NW BUILDING INTO

THE REGION. ALL THE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING ASCAT PASS SHOW MAX

WINDS 20 KT MAINLY OVER NT1 WATERS AND MIN WINDS 5 TO 10 KT OVER

THE CENTRAL REGION. AT 18Z THE NCEP MAP HAS HIGH PRES 1025 MB

CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH ITS RIDGE EXTENDING W INTO

MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN REGIONS AND THE PRES GRADIENT IS

FAIRLY SLACK ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS SW FROM

COMPLEX LOW PRES 1004 MB JUST E OF NEW FOUNDLAND CANADA INTO THE

BALT CANYON WATERS THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL WATERS INTO SRN VA.

ANOTHER LOW PRES 1012 MB IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE S-ERN WATERS

FROM THE E. THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY CONTINUED TO INITIALIZE WELL

WITH THESE FEW SYNOP FEATURES. THE MODELS GFS/UKMETHR/CMC/

ECMWFHR/NOGAPS/JMA HAVE A DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM

PUSHING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER E AND DISSIPATE IT. THE MODELS ALSO

AGREE ON BUILDING A HIGH PRES RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE

REGION. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES MAINLY

ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW PRES THAT WILL DEVELOP INLAND

AND THEN MOVE E ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW

GALE FORCE THRESHOLD AND THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES IN WIND SPEED

WITHIN 5 KT THRU MOST OF THE PREIOD. SO WILL JUST STAY WITH GFS

LIKE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.



.SEAS...THE SEAS RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT OVER THE NT1 WATERS AND

THEY RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 FT OVER THE NT2 WATERS. NWW3 WAVE MODEL

FITS WELL WITH THE OBSERVED SEAS PATTERN AND HAS BEEN QUITE

CONSISTENT IN THE PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE FORECAST AND HAS ALSO

BEEN IN GOOD AGREEEMNT WITH THE ECMWFWAVE ESPCIALLY IN THE SHORT

TERM WITH JUST MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WILL STAY

CLOSE TO NWW3 FOR THE SEAS. LONG PERIOD SWELL GENERATED BY GASTON

WILL AFFECT THE WATERS THRU WED.





.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.





.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

