

638 

AGPN40 KWNM 050733

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

1233 AM PDT MON SEP 5 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



SUMMARY...00Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRES TROFING OVER

CALIFORNIA...WITH RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EPAC HIGH BUILDING E

TOWARD THE CONUS WEST COAST. LATEST AVAILABLE ASCAT HI-RES AND

ASCAT PASSES FROM EARLIER TONITE INDICATE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS IN N

TO NW FLOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA OFSHR WTRS.



MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...RELATIVELY WEAK LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RIDE

OVER THE TOP OF THE EPAC RIDGE AND PASS SE ACROSS THE PZ5 WATERS

THIS EVENING INTO TUE...THEN AGAIN WED INTO THU. OTHERWISE THE

CALIFORNIA TROF AND THE EPAC RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FCST

PERIOD AND PRODUCE STRONG N TO NW FLOW OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL

CALIFORNIA OFSHR/COASTAL WTRS. THE EPAC RIDGE WEAKENS FRI AND FRI

NITE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE PZ5 AREA FROM THE NW...WHILE

THE TROF OVER CALIFORNIA PERSISTS.



MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS

THE OFSHR WTRS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE SOME MINOR

DIFFS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NRN

CALIFORNIA OFSHR WTRS...WITH GFS 30M/GEM SHOWING GALES AND

ECMWF/UKMET/GFS 10M INDICATING MAX WINDS OF 30 KT. SINCE WE

ALREADY HAVE GALE WRNGS UP FOR THE INNER NRN CALIFORNIA OFSHR WTRS

FOR THU AND THU NITE...WILL KEEP THE GALES UP. ALMOST ALL OF THE

MDLS ARE SHOWING MARGINAL GALES IN THE NRN CALIFORNIA COASTAL

WTRS FOR MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. WILL USE A REPRESENTATIVE 50/50

BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS 30M/10M FOR THE WIND GRIDS THRU THE ENTIRE

FCST PRD.



SEAS...00Z ENP WAVEWATCH III MDL AND 00Z ECMWF WAM BOTH LOOK

REASONABLE WITH THE SEA HTS THRU FRI NITE...AND ARE ALSO IN VERY

GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT. WILL USE THE 00Z ENP WAVEWATCH III MDL FOR

THE WAVE HT GRIDS THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD...AND WILL ADJUST IT

UPWARD 10 PERCENT FOR GALES THU INTO FRI.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

 GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO FRI.



$$



.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

