

110 

AGNT40 KWNM 160707

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

307 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES WHICH HAS PERSISTED FROM THE SE AND

MID ATLC STATES EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL

FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TOWARD THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.



SHORT TERM...THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE REMAINING IN VERY GOOD

AGREEMENT ACROSS THE REGION...AND ARE REMAINING FAIRLY CONSISTENT

AS WELL. THE LATE EVE ASCT AND RSCT OVERPASSES INDICATED MAX

WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVR FAR SRN AND FAR NE NT2 WTRS. THE 06Z

PRELIM OPC-NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT BCMG STNRY

OVR NRN NT2 WTRS...WITH SFC HIGH PRES COVERING AREAS S AND N OF

THE FRONT. FOR THE AM FCST PACKAGE WE WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT

CHANGES TO THE PREV FEW OPC FCSTS AS THE GENERAL WX SCENERIO

REMAINS THE SAME OVR THE WTRS THRU THU NITE. THE FRONT OVR NRN

NT2 WTRS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RETURN N AS A WARM FRONT DURING

THE DAY TODAY INTO TONITE. LOW PRES WILL TRACK FROM THE GRT LKS

TOWARD NRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...AND PASS N OF THE WTRS TONITE INTO

WED. A COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS SE OVR NT1 WTRS

WED INTO WED NITE...AND THEN STALL OVR NRN NT2 WTRS (39N-40N)

THU. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NT1 WTRS FROM THE NW EARLY

THU NITE...AND PASS SE OVR THESE WTRS LTR THU NITE INTO EARLY

FRI. TO THE S...OVR CENTRAL AND SRN NT2 WTRS...A HIGH PRES RIDGE

WILL DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A SLOW WEAKENING

OF THE RIDGE LKLY BY THU INTO FRI. FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE WE

WILL POPULATE THE FCST WITH A 50-50 BLEND OF THE PREV FCST AND

00Z GFS 10M WINDS. THIS WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FCST CONTINUITY AND

RESULT IN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING OPC FCST. THE LATEST

SATELLITE...RADAR AND LIGHTNING DENSITY IMAGERY DOES INDICATE

SCTD TSTMS OCCURRING MAINLY OVR NRN NT2 WTRS NR THE FRONT...WITH

ISOLATED TSTMS FURTHER S OVR SRN NT2 WTRS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR

STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE NR EACH FRONTAL SYSTEM OVR THE WTRS FOR

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS NR GALE FORCE AND

ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE NR THE STRONGER TSTMS.



LONG TERM...THE 00Z GLOBAL MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT FRI INTO

THE WKND. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT FROM THE

12Z CYCLE FROM MON...AND IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z

UKMET AND LATEST MED RANGE GUIDANCE FROM WPC. AS A RESULT WE WILL

TRANSITION OUR GRIDS AND FCST TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF FOR LATER FRI

INTO SAT NITE OVR THE WTRS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LITTLE

CHANGE FROM THE PREV FCST FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE WITH A FRONT

ONCE AGAIN BECOMING NRLY STNRY OVR NRN OR CENTRAL NT2 WTRS FRI

NITE INTO SAT NITE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE WTRS.



SEAS...BOTH THE 00Z WNA WAVE WATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM WAVE

MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL OVR THE WTRS PER THE

LATEST OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. TO MATCH THE WIND FCST AS NOTED

ABV...WE WILL POPULATE THE GRIDS AND FCST WITH A 50-50 BLEND OF

THE PREV FCST AND 00Z WW3 MDL GUID FOR TODAY INTO FRI...AND THEN

TRANSITION TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF WAM MDL OUTPUT THEREAFTER.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

