

189 

AGNT40 KWNM 060135

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN 

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

935 PM EDT FRI 5 AUG 2016 



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. 



TODAYS MODELS WERE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE 

PREVIOUS RUNS ACROSS THE W ATLC AND CONTINUED TO BE IN ABOVE 

AVERAGE AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ACROSS THE GULF OF 

MAINE S WINDS HAVE REACHED 25 KT. BUOY 44005 ALSO REPORTED 6 FT 

AT 00Z WHICH IS A COUPLE FT HIGHER THAN THE 18Z WAVEWATCH. MADE 

SOME NEAR TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOS WIND/WAVE HEIGHT GRIDS 

HERE. OTHERWISE GRIDS LOOK REPRESENTATIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT 

WEEK. TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE LATEST 12Z/18Z GFS AND 

12Z UKMET ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE 12Z ECMWF/CMC 

IN MOVING A COLD FRONT TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPDATED WIND 

GRIDS WITH THE 18Z GFS WED/WED NIGHT AS ITS FRONTAL TIMING IS 

SUPPORTED BY GEFS AND ECMWF EPS MEANS.  



----------------------------------------------------------------

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



SUMMARY...12Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTNDG 

ROUGHLY E TO W ACROSS THE SRN NT2 WTRS...WITH A WEAK LOW 

CENTERED JUST E OF THE NT2 AREA NEAR 36N68W. LATEST AVAIL ASCAT 

AND ASCAT HI-RES PASSES FROM THIS MORNING SHOW LIGHT WINDS OF 15 

KT OR LESS OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT DATA 

AT 1840Z SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE INNER ZONES 

OF THE SRN NT2 WTRS. 



MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN THIS 

EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE TONITE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE 

COAST FROM THE NW TONITE AND SAT...MOVE OFFSHORE LATE SAT AND 

SAT NITE...CONTINUE SE OVER THE OFSHR WTRS SUN AND SUN 

NITE...THEN STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE SRN NT2 WTRS MON INTO 

TUE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE NW LATE 

WED AND WED NITE. 



MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT 

ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS THRU TUE NITE. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING 

VRY GUD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO 

THE 12Z GFS 10M SOLN LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE ENUF TO BE USED FOR 

THE WIND GRIDS THRU TUE NITE. THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE NOT IN 

GUD AGREEMNT REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT ON 

WED AND WED NITE...BUT THE 12Z UKMET LOOKS LIKE A GUD MEDIAN 

SOLN ATTM SO WILL BE USING IT FOR WED AND WED NITE. 



SEAS...12Z WNA WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM BOTH INITIALIZED 

WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. THESE MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT 

THRU WED NITE...BUT WITH A FEW MINOR DIFFS NOTED OVER THE OFSHR 

WTRS AT VARIOUS TIMES...SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z WNA 

WAVEWATCH III/ECMWF WAM THRU THE FCST PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT THESE 

DIFFS. 



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. 



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. 



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS... 

     NONE. 



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS... 

     NONE. 



$$ 



.FORECASTER CLARK/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

