

825 

AGNT40 KWNM 250709

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

309 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



SUMMARY...00Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE

OVER THE OFSHR WTRS...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTNDG NE TO SW

ACROSS THE WTRS BETWEEN THE SRN NT2 ZONES AND BERMUDA. LATEST

AVAILABLE ASCAT AND ASCAT HI-RES PASSES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING

SHOW AREAS OF WINDS TO 20 KT IN NE FLOW OVER THE SRN NT2

ZONES...BUT OTHERWISE INDICATE LIGHT WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS IN THE

REMAINING OFSHR WTRS. LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT DATA AT 0650Z DID

NOT SHOW ANY SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE COASTAL/OFSHR WTRS.



MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...THE WEAK SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD...WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED

20 TO 25 KT IN THE OFSHR WTRS. A HI PRES RIDGE WILL PASS E OVER

THE OFSHR WTRS TODAY INTO FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE

COAST FROM THE NW FRI...THEN MOVE SE OVER THE OFSHR AREA FRI NITE

INTO SAT NITE WHILE WEAKENING. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD SE OVER

THE OFSHR WTRS LATE SAT AND SAT NITE...THEN E ACROSS THE NT1 WTRS

SUN AND SUN NITE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PASS SE OVER THE NT1

AREA MON AND MON NITE. T.S. GASTON IS FORECAST TO TRACK NW TOWARDS

THE BERMUDA AREA THRU MON NITE WHILE STRENGTHENING. GASTON IS

EXPECTD TO PUSH LONG PERIOD SW SWELL INTO THE OFSHR WTRS DURING

THE SAT THRU MON NITE TIMEFRAME. REFER TO LATEST NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORY FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.



MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VERY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT

ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT THE 00Z GEM

DOES NOT HAVE A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NT1 WTRS ON MON AND MON

NITE. THE 00Z GFS 10M SOLN LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE ENUF TO BE USED

FOR THE WIND GRIDS THRU AT LEAST MON NITE. AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE

ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST TREND.



SEAS...THE 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH III MDL AND THE 00Z ECMWF WAM BOTH

INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS VERSUS THE RA1 SEA STATE

ANALYSIS. THE MDLS BOTH LOOK REASONABLE AND GENERALLY STAY WITHIN

1 TO 2 FEET OF EACH OTHER THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD...SO WILL GO

WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH III/ECWMF WAM FOR THE

WAVE HT GRIDS AS A COMPRIMISE SOLN.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

