

528 

AGNT40 KWNM 010749

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

349 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN OVR THE OFF WTRS DURING THE FEW

DAYS WILL BE THE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN AND NEAR

TSTMS. A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W TO E OVR THE NRN

NT2 WTRS OR ROUGHLY ALONG 39-40N EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST

SATELLITE IMGRY AND LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA INDICATES SCTD HEAVY

TSTMS NR THE FRONT FROM E AND S OF LONG ISLAND S OVR NRN AND MOST

THE CENTRAL NT2 OFF WTRS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0212Z INDICATED

WINDS NR 35 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THESE TSTMS OVR NE NT2 WTRS.

LOCAL WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE WILL BE LKLY IN OR NR THE

TSTMS OVR THE WTRS TODAY INTO TUE. THE LATEST SREF TSTMS GUID

SUGGESTS THAT THE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST OVR THESE WTRS TODAY

INTO TONITE...AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE S WITH THE FRONT TUE INTO THE

MIDDLE OF THE WK. OVERALL...THE 00Z GLBL MDLS ARE IN VRY GOOD

AGREEMENT OVR THE OFF WTRS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL RELY ON

THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS FOR TODAY THRU TUE NITE AS A RESULT. WK LOW

PRES AREAS ARE FCST TO MOVE E ALONG THE FRONT TODAY INTO TUE...

WITH HIGH PRES DOMINATING NRN NT1 AND SRN NT2 WTRS. A FINAL LOW

WILL DVLP ON THE FRONT DURING TUE...AND REACH A PSN NR 38N66W BY

00Z WED...WITH THE ASSOC FRONT THEN MOVG S OVR NRN INTO CENTRAL

NT2 WTRS AS A COLD FRONT. THE LOW WILL MOVE E OF THE WTRS TUE

NITE AS IT INTENSIFIES...LKLY PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE

WTRS AT THAT TIME. THE FRONT WILL THEN REACH A LINE FROM NR CAPE

FEAR NORTHEASTWARD OVR THE WTRS BY 12Z WED. OVERALL...THERE WILL

BE NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREV FEW OPC FCSTS FOR EARLY AM

PACKAGE OVR THE SHORT TERM.



LONG TERM...FOR WED THRU FRI NITE...WE WILL RELY ON THE PREV SET

OF GRIDS FOR THIS PART OF THE FCST PACKAGE. WE SEE NO NEED TO

ALTER THE FCST AT THIS TIME...AS BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF

GNRLY SUPPORT THE PREV GRIDS AND FCST. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVR

SRN NT2 WTRS LTR WED AND WED NITE AS HIGH PRES SPREADS S FROM NT1

WTRS INTO NT2 WTRS. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN OVR SRN NT2

WTRS THU INTO THU NITE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WEAK LOW PRES

TRACKING E-NE ALONG THE FRONT LTR THU INTO FRI...WITH THE 00Z

ECMWF SHOWING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW VERSES THE 00Z GFS

SOLUTION. FOR NOW...WE WILL STAY WITH THE PREV GRIDS AND FCST...

AND CONT TO MONITOR FUTURE GUIDANCE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL

APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE FRI AND FRI NITE WITH SOME TIMING

DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE 00Z MDLS. FOR NOW...WE FEEL THE BEST

COURSE OF ACTION IS TO REMAIN CONSISTENT...AND STAY CLOSE TO THE

PREV GRIDS AND FCST FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.



ALSO OF NOTE...A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG 30N OVR

THE CENTRAL AND WRN ATLC INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LKLY

REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY TROPICAL ACTIVITY WELL S AND SW

OF THE OFF WTRS FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMGRY

SHOWS A STRONG TROPICAL WV MOVG QUICKLY W...AND PASSING S OF THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...OVR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...EARLY THIS

MORNING. THE LATEST TROPICAL WX OUTLOOK FROM NHC GIVES THIS

SYSTEM 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE

NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADTL INFORMATION REGARDING TROPICAL WX PLS

REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



SEAS...WE WILL ADJUST SEA HEIGHTS UPWARD BY A FT OR SO FROM THE

00Z WNA WAVE WATCH III MDL OUTPUT OVR WTRS S OF LONG ISLAND AND

OFF THE SE U.S. COAST PER THE LATEST OBS. OTW...WE WILL STAY

CLOSE TO THE 00Z WNA WW3 MDL OUTPUT THRU TUE NITE AS WE RELY ON

THE 00Z GFS WINDS FOR THIS PART OF THE FCST. FOR WED INTO FRI

NITE AS WE ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREV SET OF GRIDS FOR THE

WIND FCST WE WILL ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREV SEA HEIGHT FCST

FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. 



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

