

331 

AGPN40 KWNM 242017

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

117 PM PDT WED AUG 24 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.







THE 18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 51N138W

WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NE INTO WESTERN BRITISH COLUMBOA...AND S

ALONG 140W. COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDED N ALONG THE ENTIRE W COAST TO

N OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1733Z WITH DATA LIMITED

TO CENTRAL/S CA WATERS INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF 25 KT W OF

CHANNEL ISLANDS...OTHERWISE WINDS WERE 20 KT OR LESS. 



THE 12Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING MOST

OF THE FCST PERIOD...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP DURING THE

DAY 5 PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...NO MAJOR CHANGES

FROM PREVIOUS FCST ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO

THE 00Z RUN...WHICH WAS USED TO POPULATE WIND GRIDS ON PREVIOUS

SHIFT. THE HIGH PRES MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE SW THE NEXT FEW

DAYS WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING...WHILE THE TROUGH ALONG THE COAST

ALSO WEAKENS SAT INTO SUN. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE COAST OR

SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE...EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS

OVER THE OUTER WATERS OF WA/OR/N CA WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS TOPPING

OUT AROUND 25 KT FOR THE MOST PART. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER SUN

THROUGH MON NIGHT...THE MODELS ALL INDICATE A LOW FORMING OVER THE

GULF OF AK THEN MOVING SE. SEVERAL WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT

THE WA/OR WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN

WELL BELOW WARNING CRITIERIA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE

TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW WITH THE UKMET BEING FURTHER S AND

SLIGHTLY STRONGER...WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER N AND WEAKER. THE GFS

ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT COMPROMISE HERE...AND IS NOT TOO

DIFFERENT FROM THE GEM. WITH THIS IN MIND...PLAN ON POPULATING

WIND GRIDS WITH 12Z GFS 10M WINDS THROUGHOUT.



.SEAS...THE 18Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS

CONTINUE TO MATCH UP WELL WITH THE MODEL FCST VALUES. PLAN ON

USING THE MWW3 THROUGHOUT. 



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.





.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

