

930 

AGNT40 KWNM 031905

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

305 PM EDT WED AUG 3 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



SUMMARY...12Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTNDG E

TO W ACROSS THE SRN NT2 WTRS TO CAPE LOOKOUT...WITH A HI PRES

RIDGE BUILDING S OVER THE NT1 AREA...AND A STRONG LOW CENTERED

ABOUT 330 NM E OF ZONE 905 IN THE NE PART OF THE NT2 WTRS. LATEST

AVAIL ASCAT AND ASCAT HI-RES PASSES FROM THIS MORNING SHOW 20 TO

25 KT WINDS IN NE FLOW OVER ZONE 905...BUT ELSEWHERE IN THE OFSHR

WTRS MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT WINDS. LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA AT 1830Z

SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE SRN ZONES OF THE

NT2 AREA.



MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...A WEAK LOW NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT WILL MOVE

OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY THIS EVENING...PASS E OVER THE NT2 WTRS

TONITE INTO THU...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE E LATER THU AND THU NITE. A

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FRI NITE AND SAT...MOVE

OFFSHORE LATE SAT INTO SAT NITE...SWEEP SE OVER THE OFSHR WTRS

SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN STALL ACROSS THE SRN NT2 WTRS MON AND MON

NITE.



MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT

ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS THRU THE FCST PERIOD. GIVEN THAT THE WEATHER

FEATURES INFLUENCING THE OFSHR WTRS THRU MON NITE WILL BE WEAK...THE

12Z GFS 10M SOLN LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE ENUF TO BE USED FOR THE WIND

GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. 



SEAS...THE 12Z WNA WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM BOTH INITIALIZED

WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS...AND THE MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT

THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED...SO WILL

USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z WNA WAVEWATCH III/ECMWF WAM TO

SMOOTH OUT THE MDL DIFFERENCES.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.





.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

