

134 

AGPN40 KWNM 300811

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

111 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



00Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD...WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES STILL NOTED IN THE EXTENDED

TIME PERIOD. WILL LEAN TOWARDS 00Z ECMWF WHEN POPULATING WIND

GRIDS UNTIL 00Z SUN...AND THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE 00Z UKMET

SOULTION THEREAFTER UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 



WEAK COLD FRONT STILL MOVING ACROSS NRN WATERS ATTM. LATEST SFC

OBS AND ASCAT DATA SHOWING WINDS AROUND 20 KT IN THE SLY FLOW

AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS STILL HINTING AT A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE

DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING NE ACROSS THE NRN WATERS

LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL KEEP WINDS TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE

FRONT NEAR THE FRONTAL WAVE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED LOW

PRES WILL REMAIN N AND NW OF THE AREA THROUGH THU. CHANGE IN THE

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS LOW MOVING SE ACROSS THE NRN

WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH

TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND WILL MAKE NECESSARY CHANGES IN

THE FORECAST. MODELS ALSO AGREEING IN WINDS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE IN

THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WILL ADD

25 KT WINDS TO THE FORECAST.



COASTAL TROF WILL PERSIST ALONG NRN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST

THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED NWLY FLOW.

LATEST ASCAT DATA SHOWING WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 25 KT RANGE.

MODELS DO INDICATE WINDS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE GENERALLY FROM NEAR PT

PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO NEAR PT CONCEPTION TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST

WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE IN THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO GALE

FORCE POSSIBLE. IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS TO

30 KT. WINDS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA THROUGH THE

REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THESE HIGHER WINDS MOVING

UP THE COAST AND AFFECTING THE NRN CALIFORNIA WATERS BEGINNING FRI

NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 



MODELS STILL SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER

THE NRN WATERS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE

UKMET STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE THAN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS.

HOWEVER...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER

RIDGE THAN IN PREV RUNS. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE UKMET SOLUTION

AFTER 00Z SUN.



.SEAS...BOTH WWWIII ENP AND ECMWFWAVE WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF

CURRENT OBS. SINCE LEANING TOWARDS 00Z ECMWF FOR WIND GRIDS...WILL

ALSO LEAN TOWARDS 00Z ECMWFWAVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.





.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

