

182 

AGNT40 KWNM 012103

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN 

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

500 PM EDT THU 1 SEP 2016 



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT 

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N. 



NOTE: OPC IS PROVIDING POST-TROPICAL FORECAST SUPPORT TO NHC FOR 

HURCN GASTON AND T.S. HERMINE...SO THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE 

BRIEF. 

AT 18Z A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR 35N72W OR 

ABOUT 170 NM E OF CAPE HATTERAS AND IS MOVING NE AT ABOUT 20 KT. 

ALTHOUGH THE 12Z GFS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE WINDS ASSOCIATED 

WITH THIS LOW...THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION 

HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO BE INITIALIZED MUCH HIGHER THAN GFS/NAM/ 

UKMET/ECMWF. THIS MORNINGS ASCAT OVERPASSES MISSED THESE SRN NT2 

WATERS. HOWEVER BASED ON HRRR/RAP...WILL MAINTAIN GALE WARNING 

ACROSS OUTER ANZ930 AND ANZ925 WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. OVER 

THE NEAR TERM THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE POPULATING WINDS WITH THE 

13KM RAP.



FORECAST THEN OBVIOUSLY SHIFTS TO HERMINE AS MODELS ARE 

BEGINNING TO CONVERGE SOMEWHAT THAT SYSTEM WILL RE EMERGE 

OFFSHORE ALONG THE NC COAST EARLY SAT. NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN IN 

LINE WITH ECMWF THROUGH 48 HOURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 

THAT SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND NEARLY STALL OFF THE NRN MID ATLC AND 

SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS AS IT INTERACTS WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL 

CLOSED LOW SUN THRU MIDWEEK. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE 

TRACK AND STRENGTH OF HERMINE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. 



.SEAS...THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM ARE WELL 

INITIALIZED WITH THE W ATLC WAVE HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON. 



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...WITH MODELS ALL INDICATING 

THAT HERMINE WILL SLOW AND NEARLY STALL OFF THE NRN MID ATLC AND 

SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS SUN THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THERE IS A HIGH 

LIKLIHOOD THAT A SIGNIFICANT SURGE EVENT WILL DEVELOP. RECENT 

RUNS OF THE ESTOFS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE ETSS AND AT THIS 

TIME THESE HIGHER VALUES LOOK MORE REPRESENTATIVE. 



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY. 



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE.

.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SUN INTO TUE. 

.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. 



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...

     TROPICAL STORM SAT.

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. 

.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. 

.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...

     TROPICAL STORM SAT.

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO TUE. 

.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE.

.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE TUE.

.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES 

LIGHT...

     TROPICAL STORM SAT.

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. 

.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK 

BEACH LIGHT...

     TROPICAL STORM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS 

CANYON...

     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 

     TROPICAL STORM SAT.

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO MON. 

.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE 

HATTERAS...

     TROPICAL STORM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...

     TROPICAL STORM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. 

.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...

     GALE TODAY.

     TROPICAL STORM SAT.

     TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...

     TROPICAL STORM FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. 



$$ 



.FORECASTER CLARK. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

