

861 

AGPN40 KWNM 161453

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

753 AM PDT TUE AUG 16 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



A FAMILIAR PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE E PAC THIS MORNING WITH 1029

MB HIGH PRES ANALYZED NEAR 40N140W AND 1009 MB LOW PRES LOCATED

OVER CENTRAL CA PER THE 12Z SFC ANALYSIS. NLY WINDS PERSIST BTWN

THESE FEATURES...HIGHEST OFF THE N CA/S OR COAST WHERE EARLIER

ASCAT/RSCAT PASSES CONFIRMED 20 TO 30 KT WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE

WTRS AND SOME GALES WITHIN THE COASTAL WTRS. THE CURRENT FCST

REMAINS ON TRACK WITH GALES EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE INNER N CA 

OFFSHORE WTRS LATER TONIGHT. THE 06Z GFS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH

ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...SO NO CHANGES TO THE WARNING HEADLINES ATTM. 



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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



THE 06Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 41N139W

WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE WA/OR OFFSHORE WATERS.

MEANWHILE TROUGH EXTENDED N ALONG THE CA COAST TO THE FAR SRN

OREGON COAST. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0440Z DID INDICATE AN AREA OF

GALES OVER THE SRN OREGON/N CA COASTAL WATERS...WITH 30 KT NOTED

OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF N CA OFFSHORE WATERS. ALSO OF NOTE WAS

AN AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS NEAR AND JUST W OF THE CHANNEL

ISLANDS OVER SRN CA COASTAL WATERS.



THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DURING THE

ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. THE MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE

DURATION AND COVERAGE OF GALES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT WINDS TO

INCREASE OVER THE N CA/S OREGON COASTAL WATERS AGAIN LATER THIS

AFTERNOON...WITH GALES THEN EXPANDING W INTO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE

WATERS BY EVENING AS LOW PRES INLAND OVER N CA STRENGTHENS WHILE

HIGH PRES W OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALSO STRENGTHENS. WITH THE

GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF THE GFS...PLAN TO USE THE OFFICIAL

GRIDS THROUGH 12Z THU...WHICH WILL MEAN NO CHANGES TO THE EXISTING

WARNING HEADLINES. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE GALE WARNING FOR THE

INNER PORTION OF N WA WATERS FOR WED NIGHT AS TROUGH BRIEFLY

STRENGTHENS OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. WILL THEN USE THE 00Z GFS 10M

WINDS FROM 12Z THU THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD. WINDS WILL

DECREASE BELOW GALE BY EARLY THU MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW GALE

THRESHOLD AS HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES OVER N CA BOTH WEAKEN.



.SEAS...THE 06Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT BOTH THE MWW3

AND ECMWF WAM SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SEAS WITH OBSERVED

VALUES WITHIN A FT OF THE MODEL. SIMILAR TO THE WIND GRIDS...WILL

LEAVE OFFICIAL GRIDS THROUGH 12Z THU...THEN USE 00Z MWW3 FOR THE

REMAINDER OF PERIOD. 



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.







.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...

     GALE WED NIGHT.

.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...

     GALE WED.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. 



$$



.FORECASTER REINHART/KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

