

778 

AGPN40 KWNM 121505

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

805 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THE LATEST GOES IR IMAGERY INDC A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE

FORECAST WATERS WITH LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF AK. THE 12Z NCEP

SURFACE MAP HAS A WEAKENING HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE PZ5 WATERS

WITH A LOW PRES TROF ALONG THE COAST. THE PRES GRADIENT IS FAIRLY

SLACK OVER THE WATERS. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW HIGHER WINDS OVER THE

NRN WATERS REACHING 25 KT. AND GFS HAS WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE SAME

AREA WHILE THE CMC HAS WINDS TO 35 KT...THE ECMWFHR IS WEAKER WITH

WINDS TO 20 KT WHILE THE UKMETHR MATCHES THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE WITHIN 10 KT DIFFERENCE EVEN IN THE EXTENDED

PERIOD WITH UKMETHR AND GFS BECOMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT. WILL

STAY WITH GFS BUT WILL DO JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS INITIALLY TO

MATCH THE OBSERVATIONS. THE SEAS RANGE BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FT OVER THE

NRN WATERS WHILE THEY RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT OVER THE SRN

WATERS. THE NWW3 AND THE ECMWFWAVE HAVE INTIALIZED WELL AND THEY

HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISSTENT IN THE PREVIOUS RUNS AND SO WILL

CONTINUE WITH NWW3. IN THE SHORT TERM HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST TO

THE W OF THE WATERS AND WILL MAINTAIN A RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS

WHILE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN SLOWLY. WITH A

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE WILL RETAIN THE GALE WARNINGS MON

ONWARDS.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



THERE WAS A RAPIDSCAT PASS AT 05Z WITH A SWATH ACRS THE WA/OR AND

NRN CA WTRS AND INTO NRN CNTRL CA WTRS. MAX WINDS WERE TO 25 KT

OVR THE OR AND WA WTRS. THERE WAS A SHIP OBS OVR THE NRN WA WTRS

WITH 25 KT AT 06Z AND 30 KT AT 08Z WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE

CORRECT.



HIGH PRES RMNS CNTRD TO THE W OF THE WA/OR EARLY THIS MRNG WHILE

A WK TROF XTNDED FM CA INTO OR. MDL GUID KPS STGST WINDS OVR THE

WA/OR WTRS THIS MRNG WITH SOME EASING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS

TDA INTO TNGT AS THE HIGH PRES BECOMS WKR. THE GFS SHIFTS THE

STGST WINDS SWD INTO THE NRN CA WTRS LATER SAT AS COASTAL TROF

REDVLPS AND INTENSIFIES LATER SUN INTO MON. MDLS ARE SMLR INTO

EARLY NEXT WK WITH GALES DVLPG MON ALG THE ERN AREAS OF THE NRN

CA/OR WTRS WITH THE HIGH PRES TO THE W AND NW OF THE WTRS

STRENGTHENING THRU TUE AND TUE NGT. WL USE THE 30M GFS WINDS FOR

LATER MON INTO TUE NGT AS THIS OCCURS.



SEAS...THE MULTIGRID WWIII AND ECMWF WAM ARE IN CLOSE AGRMT THRU

THE FCST PD AND WL USE A 50/50 BLEND WITH MINOR MODIFICATIONS AS

GALES DVLP MON INTO TUE NGT. 





.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.







.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...

     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. 

     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.



$$



.FORECASTER MUSONDA/ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

