

886 

AGPN40 KWNM 160759

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

1259 AM PDT TUE AUG 16 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THE 06Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 41N139W

WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE WA/OR OFFSHORE WATERS.

MEANWHILE TROUGH EXTENDED N ALONG THE CA COAST TO THE FAR SRN

OREGON COAST. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0440Z DID INDICATE AN AREA OF

GALES OVER THE SRN OREGON/N CA COASTAL WATERS...WITH 30 KT NOTED

OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF N CA OFFSHORE WATERS. ALSO OF NOTE WAS

AN AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS NEAR AND JUST W OF THE CHANNEL

ISLANDS OVER SRN CA COASTAL WATERS.



THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DURING THE

ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. THE MODELS ALSO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE

DURATION AND COVERAGE OF GALES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT WINDS TO

INCREASE OVER THE N CA/S OREGON COASTAL WATERS AGAIN LATER THIS

AFTERNOON...WITH GALES THEN EXPANDING W INTO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE

WATERS BY EVENING AS LOW PRES INLAND OVER N CA STRENGTHENS WHILE

HIGH PRES W OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS ALSO STRENGTHENS. WITH THE

GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF THE GFS...PLAN TO USE THE OFFICIAL

GRIDS THROUGH 12Z THU...WHICH WILL MEAN NO CHANGES TO THE EXISTING

WARNING HEADLINES. WILL THEN USE THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS FROM 12Z

THU THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW

GALE BY EARLY THU MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW GALE THRESHOLD AS HIGH

PRES AND LOW PRES OVER N CA BOTH WEAKEN. 



.SEAS...THE 06Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT BOTH THE MWW3

AND ECMWF WAM SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON SEAS WITH OBSERVED

VALUES WITHIN A FT OF THE MODEL. SIMILAR TO THE WIND GRIDS...WILL

LEAVE OFFICIAL GRIDS THROUGH 12Z THU...THEN USE 00Z MWW3 FOR THE

REMAINDER OF PERIOD. 



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...

     GALE WED NIGHT.

.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...

     GALE WED.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. 



$$



.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

