

024 

AGPN40 KWNM 260248

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

748 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THE PREVIOUS FCST APPEARS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. WE STILL EXPECT

GALES TO SPREADING INTO THE INNER NRN CALIF OFF WTRS AROUND

MIDNITE...WITH GALES FCST TO CONTINUE OVR NE NRN CALIF AND SE

OREGON WTRS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE 18Z GFS MDL GUID IS VRY

SIMILAR TO THE 12Z CYCLE. THE 00Z OPC-NCEP SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED

A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH PRES NR 39N138W...WITH LOW PRES JUST INLAND

FROM THE COAST OVR NRN CALIF WITH AN ASSOC TROF EXTENDING S AND SE

OVR WRN CALIF. LITTLE CHANGE IS THIS WX PATTERN APPEAR LKLY OVR

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE REMAINING

WELL S AND SW OF THE OFF WTRS THIS EVE...AND ARE FCST TO REMAIN

WELL S OF THE WTRS OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR ADTL INFORMATION

CONCERNING THESE SYSTEMS...T.S. FRANK AND HURCN GEORGETTE...PLS

REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES ISSUED BY NHC.



SEAS...SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM NR 12 FT OVR NRN AND CENTRAL CAL

WTRS TO 4 TO 6 FT OVR FAR SE SRN CALIF AND NW WASH OFF WTRS. FOR

THE EVE UPDATE WE WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST AND

GRIDS TO FIT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TO FIT A LITTLE BETTER WITH

NEARBY COASTAL WTRS AND TAFB FCSTS. OTW...NO MAJOR CHANGES APPEAR

NEEDED FOR THE EVE UPDATE.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



THE ASCAT PASS FROM 18Z AND THE RAPID SCAT PASS FROM 13Z THIS

MORNING BOTH INDICATE AN AREA OF 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE NRN CA

CST...EXTENDING INTO THE INNER OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE COULD BE

SOME DIURAL FLUCTUATIONS OCCURING AS AN EARLIER RAPID SCAT PASS

INDICATED GALES ACROSS THIS AREA. THE TROF ALONG THE CALIFORNIA

CST WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVR THE 24 HRS ALLOWING GALES TO

RETURN TONIGHT...FIRST IN THE COASTAL WATERS...THEN EXPANDING INTO

THE INNER OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL

REMAIN VERY PERSISTANT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE

GALES ALONG THE NRN CA PERSIST...EXTENDING ALONG THE FAR SW CST OF

OREGON FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. ALL OF THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN

GOOD AGREEEMENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE WAATERS. THE

GFS INDICATES THAT GALES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NERN PTN

OF INNER WASHINGTON WATERS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. ATTM I AM KEEPING

GALES OUT OF THE REGION UNTIL I SEE MORE CONSISTANCY WITH THE

MODELS. THE ECMWF ISNT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE GRADIENT AS THE

GFS IS ACROSS THE PORTION OF THE WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK. WILL

POP THE WIND GRIDS USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 30M AND 10M WINDS

THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD...WITH SOME MINOR EDITS. WILL KEEP ALL

GALES OUT OF THE OUTER WATERS FOR THE TIME BEING.



SEAS...BOTH THE ENP AND WAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE

PERIOD. WILL POP THE WAVE GRIDS USING THE ENP THROUGHOUT.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...

     GALE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. 

     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO SAT. 



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED. 

     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. 

.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...

     GALE TUE.



$$



.FORECASTER MILLS/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

