

237 

AGPN40 KWNM 071459

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

759 AM PDT WED SEP 7 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



FOR THE MID-MORNING UPDATE WE WILL MANUALLY ADJUST THE PREVIOUS

GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO TONE DOWN WINDS MAINLY IN OR NEAR THE GALE WNG

AREAS WHICH WILL FIT A LITTLE BETTER WITH NEARBY COASTAL WTRS

FCSTS AND FIT A LITTLE BETTER WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS NOTED OVR

THE REGION. OTW...WE WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE MORNING

UPDATE...WITH NO CHANGE TO THE PREV HEADLINES FOR NOW. SOME

CHANGES ARE PSBL THIS AFTN ONCE WE HAVE A CHANCE TO MORE FULLY

EVALUATE THE 12Z MDL CYCLES. PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR

PSBL OVR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...NRN CALIF AND SE OREG WTRS

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRES REMAINS W OF THE WTRS AND

THE INLAND AND COASTAL TROF PERSISTS.



SEAS...SEAS HEIGHTS WILL BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO FIT CURRENT

CONDITIONS AND NEARBY TAFB AND COASTAL WTRS FCSTS FOR THE MID-

MORNING UPDATE. OTW...NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE

MORNING UPDATE.



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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HIGH PRES W OF THE NRN

PZ6 WATERS CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH A LOW PRES TROF OVER

CALIFORNIA TO PRODUCE N TO NW WINDS UP TO 30 KT OR SO OFF THE

COAST OF NRN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH THE STRONGEST CONDITIONS

W OF POINT ARENA. MINIMAL GALES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT W OF POINT

ARENA AND POINT REYES. BY LATE WED THE STRONGEST CONDITIONS WILL

SHIFT N TO OFF OF CAPE MENDOCINO WITH MINIMAL GALES AGAIN A

POSSIBILITY. A BETTER CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR BY THU NIGHT W OF

POINT SAINT GEORGE AS THE THERMAL TROF STRENGTHENS OVER NRN

CALIFORNIA. THESE GALE CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO FRI

BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT. HURRICANE NEWTON IS STILL EXPECTED TO

REMAIN S AND E OF THE SRN PZ6 WATERS TONIGHT AND WED. THE LATEST

RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOK TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT

THROUGH SUN. FOR WIND GRIDS WILL USE THE GFS 30M WINDS THROUGHOUT

THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME EDITS. ONLY CHANGE TO WARNINGS WILL

BE TO ADD SOME MINIMAL GALES W OF CAPE MENDOCINO FOR WED NIGHT.

OTHERWISE CURRENT WARNINGS LOOK REASONABLE AND FEW CHANGES SHOULD

BE NEEDED ON THE NEXT OFFSHORE FORECAST.



THE NWW3 LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE SEAS AND WILL BE FOLLOWED

FAIRLY CLOSELY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.



EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...

     GALE THU NIGHT.

     GALE POSSIBLE FRI.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE TONIGHT.

     GALE THU NIGHT.

     GALE POSSIBLE FRI.

     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT.

.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...

     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 



$$



.FORECASTER MILLS/NOLT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

