

658 

AGNT40 KWNM 191908

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

308 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



SUMMARY...12Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW CENTERED JUST E

OF THE NRN NT2 WTRS...WITH AN ASSOCD TROF EXTNDG SW FROM THE LOW

ACROSS THE CENTRAL NT2 WTRS TO THE CAPE HATTERAS AREA. THE SFC

ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A COLD FRONT MOVING S OVER THE GEORGES

BANK ZONES. LATEST AVAILABLE ASCAT AND ASCAT HI-RES PASSES FROM

THIS MORNING SHOW AREAS OF WINDS TO 20 KT IN SW FLOW OVER THE

CENTRAL AND SRN NT2 WTRS...BUT OTHERWISE INDICATE LIGHT WINDS OF

15 KT OR LESS. LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT DATA AT 1840Z SHOWS

AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL NT2

WTRS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE INNER ZONES OF

THE SRN NT2 WTRS.



MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OVER THE NRN

AND CENTRAL NT2 WTRS TONITE...STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL NT2 WTRS

SAT...THEN LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT SAT NITE THRU SUN NITE. ANOTHER

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE NW SUN...MOVE OFSHR

SUN NITE...SWEEP SE OVER THE OFSHR WTRS MON INTO MON NITE....THEN

STALL NE TO SW ACROSS THE WTRS N AND W OF BERMUDA TUE INTO WED

NITE.



MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VERY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT

ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS DURING THE FCST PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS 10M

SOLN LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE ENUF TO BE USED FOR WIND GRIDS THRU THE

ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT

CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST TREND.



SEAS...THE 12Z WNA WAVEWATCH III MDL AND 12Z ECMWF WAM BOTH

INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS...AND THESE MDLS ARE IN GUD

AGREEMNT THRU THE FCST PERIOD WITH ONLY RELATIVELY MINOR

DIFFERENCES NOTED AT VARIOUS TIMES. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE

12Z WNA WAVEWATCH III/ECMWF WAM THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD TO

SMOOTH OUT THE DIFFERENCES.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

