

666 

AGNT40 KWNM 230714

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

314 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



SUMMARY...00Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTNDG W TO SW

ACROSS THE SRN NT2 WTRS...WITH A HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING E

TOWARDS THE COAST. LATEST AVAILABLE ASCAT AND ASCAT HI-RES PASSES

FROM EARLIER TONITE SHOW WINDS TO 25 KT OVER THE GULF OF

MAINE...WITH WINDS TO 20 KT OVER MOST OF THE NT1 AND NRN NT2

WTRS...WITH LIGHT WINDS 15 KT OR LESS INDICATED ACROSS THE

REMAINING OFSHR WTRS. LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT DATA AT 0630Z

SHOWS A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST S OF THE NT2

WTRS.



MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS S AND SE OF THE

NT2 WTRS BY THIS MORNING. A LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD E

OVER THE OFSHR WTRS TODAY AND TONITE...THEN MOVE E ACROSS THE

OFSHR AREAS WED INTO FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE

COAST FROM THE NW FRI...THEN MOVE SE OVER THE OFSHR WTRS FRI NITE

INTO SAT NITE. POST-TROPICAL FIONA WILL MOVE NW TOWARD THE NT2

AREA BY LATE THU. REFER TO LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.



MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VERY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT

ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...EXCEPT THE 00Z GEM

LOOKS TOO FAST/PROGRESSIVE FOR FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE. THE 00Z GFS

10M SOLN LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE ENUF TO BE USED FOR THE WIND GRIDS

THRU AT LEAST SAT NITE. AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE SIGNIF CHANGES TO

THE CURRENT FCST TREND.



SEAS...THE 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH III MDL INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE

OFSHR WTRS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF WAM LOOKS OVERDONE BY A FOOT OR

TWO IN PARTS OF THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS. THE MDLS ARE IN

REASONABLY GUD AGREEMNT THRU FRI NITE...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES

SHOWING UP MAINLY IN THE SRN NT2 WTRS FOR SAT AND SAT NITE. IN

ORDER TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE PREFERRED 00Z GFS...AM GOING

TO USE THE 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH III FOR THE WAVE HT GRIDS DURING THE

FCST PERIOD.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

