

051 

AGPN40 KWNM 082007

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

107 PM PDT MON AUG 8 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.





THE AFTN GRIDS WILL BE BASED ON THE 12Z GFS THRUT. BRIEF

REASONING FOLLOWS.



SIMPLE PATTERN EMERGING THRUT THE EPAC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE

WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES COMBINES WITH COASTAL

LOPRES TROF TO CREATE PERSISTENT AND SEASONAL N TO NW WINDS ACROSS

THE BULK OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS. BASED ON CONTD GOOD AGREEMENT

AMONG 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE STILL EXPECT THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE

GRADIENTS TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT FOR THE AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NOR

CAL COAST (ZONES 820 AND 825) WITH MARGINAL GALES STILL SUPPORTED

IN THE 12Z 4KM NAM AND 1/4 GFS OUTPUT. TO BEST REPRESENT EXPECTED

WINDS WILL USE A 1:1 30M TO 10M GFS BLEND FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 36

HRS OF THE FORECAST. TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF GALES REMAINS

UNCHANGED. CONFIDENCE STILL ONLY AVERAGE AT THE MOMENT AND AS

USUAL REMAINS HIGHEST FOR THE WATERS CLOSEST TO THE COAST (WITHIN

60 NM).



COASTAL LOW PRES TROF SHOULD WEAKEN BUT EXPAND N WED THRU SAT

NIGHT SHIFTING THE AXIS OF STRONGEST SFC WINDS (20 TO 30 KT) TO

THE PZ5 ZONES N OF ABOUT 40N. OTHERWISE LIGHT N TO NW WINDS WILL

PREVAIL ACROSS THE SRN WATERS.



SEAS...SIMILAR TO WIND GRIDS WILL BE USING THE WW3 ENP GUIDANCE

FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS. SINCE SLIGHTLY INCREASING SFC WINDS

IN FIRST 36 HOURS - WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO WAVE GRIDS BOOSTING

VALUES ABOUT 10 PERCENT (2-3 FT) IN AREAS OF EXPECTED GALES.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. 

.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...

     GALE TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. 



$$



.FORECASTER COLLINS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

