

710 

AGPN40 KWNM 252105

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

205 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THE ASCAT PASS FROM 18Z AND THE RAPID SCAT PASS FROM 13Z THIS

MORNING BOTH INDICATE AN AREA OF 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE NRN CA

CST...EXTENDING INTO THE INNER OFFSHORE WATERS. THERE COULD BE

SOME DIURAL FLUCTUATIONS OCCURING AS AN EARLIER RAPID SCAT PASS

INDICATED GALES ACROSS THIS AREA. THE TROF ALONG THE CALIFORNIA

CST WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVR THE 24 HRS ALLOWING GALES TO

RETURN TONIGHT...FIRST IN THE COASTAL WATERS...THEN EXPANDING INTO

THE INNER OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL

REMAIN VERY PERSISTANT DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE

GALES ALONG THE NRN CA PERSIST...EXTENDING ALONG THE FAR SW CST OF

OREGON FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. ALL OF THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN

GOOD AGREEEMENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE WAATERS. THE

GFS INDICATES THAT GALES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NERN PTN

OF INNER WASHINGTON WATERS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. ATTM I AM KEEPING

GALES OUT OF THE REGION UNTIL I SEE MORE CONSISTANCY WITH THE

MODELS. THE ECMWF ISNT QUITE AS STRONG WITH THE GRADIENT AS THE

GFS IS ACROSS THE PORTION OF THE WATERS LATER IN THE WEEK. WILL

POP THE WIND GRIDS USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 30M AND 10M WINDS

THROUGHOUT THE FCST PERIOD...WITH SOME MINOR EDITS. WILL KEEP ALL

GALES OUT OF THE OUTER WATERS FOR THE TIME BEING.



SEAS...BOTH THE ENP AND WAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE

PERIOD. WILL POP THE WAVE GRIDS USING THE ENP THROUGHOUT.



THE RAPID SCAT PASS FROM 06Z INDICATES THAT GALES HAVE BEGUN ALONG

THE CALIFORNIA CST...MOST RECENT ASCAT DATA IS MISSING DATA OVER

THAT REGION. WILL EDIT EARLY GRIDS TO INCREASE WINDS FOR THE EARLY

PART OF TODAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY STABLE

THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH CONSISTANT GALES OCCURING ALONG THE NRN

CA AND FAR SW OREGON CSTS...OTHERWISE NOT MANY CHANGES EXPECTED

FOR THE GRIDS OR ASSOCIATED TEXT FCSTS.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GALES APPEARS LIKELY OVER

NE CALIF AND FAR SE OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS TONITE THROUGHOUT MUCH

OF THE WEEK.



SHORT TERM...A LARGE HIGH PRES AREA WILL PERSIST TO THE W OF THE

WTRS THRU AT LEAST MIDWEEK...WITH A COASTAL LOW PRES TROF ALSO

PERSISTING OVR CALIF THRU TUE...AND EXPANDING N TO SRN OREG BY

WED. A 0441Z ASCAT PASS INDICATE GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS

OCCURRING JUST OFF THE NRN CALIF COAST OVR THE COASTAL WTRS JUST

S OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE REMAINING IN VERY

GOOD AGREEMENT OVR THE OFFSHORE WTRS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE

WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS FOR TODAY THRU WED AND

THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PAST FEW FCSTS. BASED

ON THE LATEST ASCAT PASS WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BOOST THE 10M

GFS WINDS BY 10 PERCENT OVR THE OFF WTRS FROM SE OREGON INTO NE

CALIF WTRS ADJACENT TO THE COASTAL WTRS TO MAINTAIN THE FCST

GALES OVR THESE WTRS...WHICH ALSO ADJUSTS WELL TO THE LATEST

ASCAT PASS FROM THIS REGION. WE WILL LIMIT GALES TO THE INNER

WTRS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE AS THE CHANCE FOR GALES EXTENDING W

INTO THE NRN CALIF OUTER OFF WTRS APPEARS TOO LOW TOO ADD OR KEEP

IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. CONFDC IN THE GALES SPREADING FROM THE

COASTAL WTRS INTO THE INNER OFF WTRS OF NRN CALIF AND SE OREG IS

NEAR TO ABV AVERAGE OVR THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FCST.



LONG TERM...AS WAS NOTED ABOVE...WE WILL MAINTAIN GALES FOR NE

CALIF AND SE OREG WTRS WED NITE INTO FRI NITE OR VERY SIMILAR TO

THE PREV OPC FCST...AND CONT TO RELY ON THE 00Z GFS FOR MID TO

LATE WEEK AS IT REMAINS VRY CONSISTENT AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT

WITH THE NON-NCEP CLUSTER OF MDLS THRU FRI NITE. WE WILL KEEP MAX

WINDS AT 35 KT...WITH SOME WINDS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE BUT MORE LKLY

OVR THE COASTAL WTRS OF NRN CALIF AND SRN OREG. ALSO THE 00Z GFS

BRINGS MIMIMAL GALES BACK TO NE WASH OFF WTRS FRI NITE. WE WILL

KEEP MAX WINDS AT 30 KT OVR THIS REGION FOR THE EARLY AM

PACKAGE...AS IT APPEARS THAT ANY GALES OVR THIS AREA WILL REMAIN N

OF THE OFF WTRS...W OF VANCOUVER ISLAND...LTR IN THE WK. WE WILL

HOWEVER CONT TO MONITOR THIS REGION CLOSELY OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS

TO SEE IF GALES MIGHT SPREAD INTO NE WASH WTRS. CONFDC LVLS IN THE

LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FCST ARE NEAR AVERAGE.



.SEAS...PER THE LATEST OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA...SEA HEIGHTS RANGE

FROM 10 TO 12 FT OFF THE NRN CALIF COAST TO 4 FT OVR WASH OFF

WTRS. THE 00Z ENP WV WATCH III MDL OUTPUT IS RUNNING GENERALLY

WITHIN A FT OR SO OF THE OBS NOTED OVR THE WTRS AT THIS TIME. AS

WE ARE STAYING CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS FOR WINDS FOR THE EARLY AM

PACKAGE WE SEE NO NEED TO DEVIATE MUCH OF THE 00Z ENP WW3 MDL GUID

FOR THE EARLY AM FCST. WE WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OR

EDITS TO GRIDS NEAR THE TAFB AND COASTAL WTRS FOR THE AM

PACKAGE...BUT OTW REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 00Z ENP WV WATCH III MDL

GUIDANCE FOR THE FCST THRU FRI NITE.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.







.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...

     GALE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. 

     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO SAT. 



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED. 

     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. 

.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...

     GALE TUE.



$$



.FORECASTER SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

