

761 

AGPN40 KWNM 122113

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

213 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THE LATEST GOES IR IMAGERY INDC A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE

FORECAST WATERS WITH LOW PRES IN THE GULF OF AK. THE 18Z NCEP

SURFACE MAP STILL HAS A WEAKENING HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE PZ5

WATERS WITH A LOW PRES TROF ALSO ALONG THE COAST. THE PRES

GRADIENT IS FAIRLY SLACK OVER THE WATERS AND ALL THE OBSERVATIONS

STILL SHOW HIGHER WINDS OVER THE NRN WATERS REACHING 25 KT AND

WINDS RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KT ELSEWHERE. THE GLOBLA MODELS HAVE

GENERALLY INITIALIZED WELL WITH JUST SMALL DIFFERENCES. THE GFS IS

STILL SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS WHERE THE

WINDS ARE ABOUT 30 KT WHILE THE CMC IS EVEN HIGHER UP TO 10

KT...THE ECMWFHR IS STILL WEAKER THAN THE OBSERVED WINDS BY 5 KT

MAX WHILE THE UKMETHR BARELY MATHCHES THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

OTHERWISE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE WITHIN 10 KT DIFFERENCE EVEN IN

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UKMETHR AND GFS BECOMING IN BETTER

AGREEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO USE GFS AND WILL ALSO DO MINOR

ADJUSTMENTS INITIALLY TO MATCH THE OBSERVATIONS. IN THE SHORT TERM

HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST TO THE W OF THE WATERS AND WILL MAINTAIN A

RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS WHILE THE INLAND TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO

STRENGTHEN SLOWLY. WITH A LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE WILL RETAIN

THE GALE WARNINGS LATE SUN NIGHT ONWARDS.



.SEAS...THE SEAS RANGE BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS

WHILE THEY RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FT OVER THE SRN WATERS. THE NWW3

AND THE ECMWFWAVE HAVE INTIALIZED WEL AND THEY HAVE BEEN QUITE

CONSISSTENT IN THE PREVIOUS RUNS AND SO WILL CONTINUE WITH NWW3.

THE SEAS WILL PEAK AT 8 FT IN THE SHORT TERM AND ONLY BUILD TO 12

FT EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE ERN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...

     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.

.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...

     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. 



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. 

     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. 

.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. 

.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...

     GALE POSSIBLE WED.

.PZZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...

     GALE POSSIBLE WED.



$$



.FORECASTER MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

