

967 

AGNT40 KWNM 010709

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

309 AM EDT THU SEP 1 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



NOTE: OPC IS PROVIDING NHC POST-TROPICAL FORECAST POINTS FOR

HURCN GASTON...T.S. HERMINE...AND T.D. 8 SO WL BE BRIEF.



OVER THE SHORT TERM...PER THE NEW 00Z MDLS...T.D. 8 SHULD BE FAR

ENUF E THAT IT WL ONLY AFFECT THE FAR NERN MOST NT2 WTRS EARLY

TODAY. ELSWHR THE 00Z GFS LOOKS LIKE A RSNBL COMPROMISE BTWN THE

MR PROGRESSIVE 00Z GEM AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER 00Z UKMET/ECMWF FOR

FCSTG A SLOWLY DVLPG SFC LOW TO TRACK NE ACRS THE SRN NT2 WTRS

TODAY...THEN PASS E OF THE CNTRL NT2 WTRS TONITE. THEREFORE PLAN

ON POPULATING OUR FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE REPRESENTATIVE 00Z GFS

10M BL WINDS FOR TODAY AND TONITE.



THEN LATER IN THE FCST PERIOD THE FCST SHIFTS TO T.S. HERMINE. AS

HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREV RUNS...THE 00Z GLOBAL MDLS IN GNRL

AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WL BCM CAPTURED BY A NRN STREAM UPR TROF

WHICH WL TRANSITION INTO A CLOSED UPR LOW SAT INTO MON NITE...BUT

DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN EXACTLY WHEN THIS WL OCCUR CAUSES EACH MDL

TO CONT TO FCST A DIFFERENT FCST TRACK FOR THE T.S.. VS ITS PREV

18Z RUN...THE 00Z GFS FCST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY MR PROGRESSIVE AND

FURTHER OFSHR SAT INTO MON NITE...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BEST BY THE

00Z GEM THRU EARLY MON. BUT LIKE ITS PREV 18Z RUN...THE 00Z GEFS

MEAN INDICATES THAT THE 00Z GFS TRACK MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO FAST

INITIALY. LIKE ITS PREV 12Z RUN...THE 00Z UKMET STIL LOOKS LIKE AN

ERN OUTLIER SOLUTION SAT AND BEYOND. LIKE THE 00Z GFS...THE 00Z

ECMWF FCST TRACK HAS TRENDED FURTHER OFSHR ALSO SAT INTO SUN...

THEN BCMS QSTNRY MON/MON NITE FURTHER W THAN THE 00Z GFS. TO SAY

FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW WOULD BE

AN UNDERSTATEMENT. BUT IF FORCED TO CHOOSE AT THE MOMENT WULD

FAVOR A COMPROMISE 00Z GFS/GEF MEAN/ECMWF SOLUTION. SO WL WAIT TO

SEE THE NEXT NHC ADVSRY BEFORE MAKING ANY SIG CHNGS TO THE PREV

FCST WIND GRIDS.



.SEAS...PER THE LATEST SFC OBS AND THEIR ASCD GFS/ECMWF

SOLUTIONS...WL POPULATE OUR FCST WAVE GRIDS WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF

THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM MDLS FOR TODAY AND TONITE.

THEN DEPENDENT ON THE NEXT NHC ADVSRY FOR HERMINE WL DECIDE LATER

OF WHETHER TO CONT WITH THIS BLEND.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. 



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...

     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT. 

.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...

     GALE SUN INTO MON NIGHT. 



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...

     GALE SAT NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. 

.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...

     GALE SUN INTO MON NIGHT. 

.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...

     GALE SAT NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. 

.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...

     TROPICAL STORM SAT.

     GALE SAT NIGHT INTO MON. 

.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...

     TROPICAL STORM SAT.

     GALE SAT NIGHT.

.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...

     GALE SAT NIGHT INTO MON. 

.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...

     TROPICAL STORM SAT.

     GALE SAT NIGHT.

.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...

     TROPICAL STORM SAT.

.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...

     TROPICAL STORM FRI INTO SAT. 



$$



.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

