

698 

AGPN40 KWNM 141500

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

800 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THE 12Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR

38N144W WITH A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED OVER NRN CA. SEASONAL N TO NW

WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WTRS THIS MORNING...HIGHEST OVER

THE INNER PZ5/NRN PZ6 ZONES WITH WINDS OF 15-25 KT. A COLD FRONT

ANALYZED NW OF THE PZ5 WTRS IS EXPECTED TO DSIPT LATER TODAY.



BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT/RSCAT PASSES...THE 06Z GFS LOOKS TO

HAVE INITIALIZED WELL AND SO WILL USE THESE WIND GRIDS THRU

TONIGHT. THIS CONFINES ANY DVLPG GALES LATER TODAY TO THE COASTAL

WTRS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREVIOUS FCST. THE 00Z ECMWF WAM

WAVE GRIDS MATCHED UP BETTER WITH THE 12Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS THIS

MORNING. THEREFORE WILL POPULATE THRU TONIGHT WITH THESE GRIDS AND

THEN BOOST SEAS A BIT ACROSS THE INNER ZONES WHERE THE STRONGEST

WINDS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE WILL WAIT ON THE NEW 12Z MODEL

GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FCST.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



THERE WAS A ASCAT PASS AT 06Z WITH A SWATH ACRS THE WA/OR/NRN AND

CNTRL AREAS OF CA W OF 126W. WINDS WERE TO 20 KT WHICH AGREES WELL

WITH GFS 10M WINDS AND ALSO THE DATA AGREES WITH NEARBY BUOY OBS.



HIGH PRES RDG TO THE W OF THE W OF THE WTRS EARLY THIS MRNG SHUD

START TO BUILD TO THE E INTO THE WA/OR WTRS LATER TDA INTO TNGT.

MDL GUID STRENGTHENS THE AREA OF HIGH PRES THRU THU...AND THEN

STARTS TO WKN THU NGT. A COASTAL TROF ALG CA WL GRADUALLY

INTENSIFY BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO TNGT OVR NRN CA WITH MDL GUID

SHOWING INTENSIFICATION THRU WED NGT. THE COASTAL TROF THEN MOVS

OFFSHR THU AND THU NGT WITH THE STGR WINDS SHIFTING FURTHER

OFFSHR. TIMING FOR GALES IN THE OFFSHR WTRS STILL LOOKS LIKELY BY

MON NGT. MDL GUID HAS THE STGST SUSTAINED WINDS OCCURRING TUE NGT

INTO WED NGT ALG THE ERN AREAS OF THE NRN CA AND SERN OR WTRS.

ANOTHER AREA OF GALES DVLP OVR THE ERN WA WTRS WED AND WED NGT

WITH THE GFS/UKMET/GEM STGR WITH THE WINDS THAN THE ECMWF. WL CONT

TO FAVOR THE GFS THRU THE FCST PD AND WL 30M WINDS FM 12Z TUE THRU

THU MRNG.



SEAS...THE MULTIGRID WWIII AND ECMWF WAM ARE IN CLOSE AGRMT THRU

THE FCST PD AND WL USE 50/50 BLEND OF THE MDLS. THE HIGHEST SEAS

OCCUR BY WED MRNG WITH ABT 17 FT.





.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...







.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...

     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU. 

.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...

     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU. 

.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...

     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. 



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO WED NIGHT. 

.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. 

.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...

     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. 

.PZZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...

     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT.



$$



.FORECASTER REINHART/ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

