

413 

AGPN40 KWNM 281419

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

719 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



FOR THE MORNING UPDATE WE WILL NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE PREV

OPC FCST. WE WILL TWEAK THE PREV FCST SLIGHTLY TO FIT CURRENT

CONDITIONS AND NEARBY TAFB AND COASTAL WTRS FCSTS. THE 06Z GFS

CYCLE IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z CYCLE WHICH WAS USED FOR THE

PREV FCST.



SEAS...SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT OVR THE OFF WTRS PER THE

LATEST OBS AND RP1 SEA STATE ANALYSIS. NO MAJOR CHANGES APPEAR

NEEDED TO THE PREV FCST FOR THE AM UPDATE. AGAIN...WE WILL TWEAK

THE PREV GRIDS AND FCST SLIGHTLY TO FIT WITH NEARBY COASTAL AND

TAFB FCSTS A LITTLE BETTER...BUT OTW MAKE NO SIG CHANGES AT THIS

TIME.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



00Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WILL POPULATE WIND GRIDS FROM 00Z GFS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 



FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NRN WATERS TODAY...AND SLOWLY

MOVE SE ACROSS THE PZ5 WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUE. WINDS GENERALLY

EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20 KT RANGE WITH THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...GFS

CONTINUES TO SHOW POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING

ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NRN PZ5 WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE...AND

HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z UKMET. WILL KEEP MENTION OF WINDS TO

25 KT IN THE NRN PZ5 WATERS FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUE. 



OTHER WEATHER FEATURE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS DEVELOPMENT OF

COASTAL TROF ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA COAST MON AND

MON NIGHT...AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 25 KT RANGE ALONG THE ERN

PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS

BEGINNING MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE

FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHER WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADJACENT

COASTAL WATERS...WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. ALSO GFS

CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW 30 KT WIND BARBS MAKING IT INTO THE

OFFSHORE WATERS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. WILL KEEP WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE

FORECAST FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT.



.SEAS...WWIII ENP WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS. WILL

POPULATE WAVE GRIDS WITH 00Z ENP THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.





.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.







.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER MILLS/ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

