

940 

AGNT40 KWNM 020715

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

315 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



THE LTST GOES IR IMGRY AND LGTNG DENSITY PROD INDC AREA OF TSTMS

ALONG A FRNTL BNDRY ACRS THE NRN NT2 WATERS...MAINLY IN THE

UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE 00Z GFS INDC THE

STATIC STABILITY WL RMN FAIRLY LOW AS THE WK CAA MOVES SLOWLY S

OVER THE GULF STREAM...EXPANDING THE CONVECTION ACRS THE C AND

SRN NT2 ZONES. AS A RESULT...PLANNING ON HAVING MENTION OF SHOWERS

AND TSTMS IN NT2 IN THE NEXT PKG.



OTRW...THE 0240Z ASCAT WIND RETRIEVALS AND CRNT SFC RPRTS INDC UP

TO 25 KT IN NT2 IN SW FLOW...S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL

BNDRY. THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS ARE INIT A LTL LOW S OF THE FRONTAL

BNDRY WHEN COMPARED WITH THE CRNT DATA...AND THE 30M GFS WINDS ARE

A LTL STG. THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET ARW BOTH WKR...THO THE 00Z GEM

WINDS SEEM TO BE INIT OK. AS A RESULT...PLANNING ON STARTING OFF

WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS 10M/30M WINDS...WHICH SEEMS TO REFLECT

CRNT CONDITIONS FAIRLY WELL. 



THE GOES WV IMGRY INDC A WK SHORTWAVE TROF CRNTLY OVR THE NEW YORK

STATE...AND HEADING QUICKLY FOR THE OFSHR WTRS. THE 00Z MODELS

ALL INDC IT WL MOV OFSHR TDA AND DVLP WAVE ALONG THE FRONT CRNTLY

OVR NT2...THEN MOVE QUICLY E OF THE AREA. THE GFS AGREES FAIRLY

WELL WITH THE REST OF THE 00Z GUID...AND INDC IT WL DVLP AT LEAST

GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE AREA BTWN 36 AND 60 HRS. THE GFS ALSO

INDC IT WL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE NT2 WATERS...MAINTAINING

MDTLY STG SW FLOW AHD OF IT. THE GFS 30M WINDS INDC 30 KT BY

THIS AFTN...WHICH SEEMS A LTL STG AT THIS PT...ESP WITH THE REST

OF THE 00Z MODELS IN 20 TO 25 KT RNG. THE 10M WINDS ALSO SEEM A

LTL WK...SO PLANNING CONTG THE 10M30M BLEND OF THE GFS OVR THE

GULF STREAM TO REFLECT THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS XPCTD. THE GFS IS

ALSO IN DECENT AGRMT WITH THE TMG OF THE FRONT WITH THE REST OF

THE 00Z MODELS...SO CONFDC IS FAIRLY HIGH WITH IT IN THE SHORT

TERM.



THE BIGGEST FCST PROBLEM IS IN THE EXTENDED PD...WITH A LOW THAT

DVLPS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT HANGS UP OVR SRN NT2 THU NGT INTO FRI.

THE GFS HAS BEEN THE WEAKEST SOLN WITH THE LOW...AND HAS

STRENGTHENED ONLY SLIGHTLY WITH THE 00Z RUN. THE 12Z ECMWF HAD

BEEN A STG OUTLIER...BUT THE 00Z RUN TRENDED WKR AND IS NOW FAIRLY

CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS SOLN. THE 00Z UKMET/GEM ARE SLIGHTLY

STGR...AND A LTL FASTER. THE PREV FCST FAVORED THE GFS SOLN...AND

ATTM PREFERRING IT AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT...AND IS NOW

SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF SOLN. 



SEAS...THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III AND ECMWF WAM HV BOTH INITIALIZED

THE CURRENT SEAS THRUT THE WTRS VERY WELL...WITH SEAS ONLY UP TO

ABT 6 FT IN THE OFSHR WTRS...THO LOW A GALE FORCE LOW S OF

NEWFOUNDLAND AS A 03Z ALTIMETER PASS INDC 12 FT...OR 3 FT HIGHER

THAN THE GUID. THE 00Z WAVE MDLS AGREE FAIRLY WELL THRUT THE FCST

PD...AS THE ASSOC WX MDLS AGREE FAIRLY WELL. AS A

RESULT...PLANNING ON USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO...AS A

COMPROMISE TO THE MINOR DIFFS BTWN THE 2 SOLNS.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. 



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

