

337 

AGPN40 KWNM 290756

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

1256 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



00Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD...WITH SOME SMALL MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED TIME

FRAME. WILL POPULATE WIND GRIDS FROM 00Z GFS UNTIL 12Z THU...AND

THEN LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION THEREAFTER.



WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NRN WATERS AT THIS

TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NOTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE

TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE FRONT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD

REMAIN IN THE 20 KT RANGE...BUT MODELS STILL SHOW THE POSSIBILITY

OF A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING N ALONG

THE FRONT TUE INTO TUE NIGHT ENHANCING WINDS TO 25 KT FOR A BRIEF

TIME. FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE PZ5 WATERS TUE AND

DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE NRN CALIFORNIA WATERS TUE NIGHT

INTO WED. 



THE OTHER STORY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE INTERACTION

OF A COASTAL TROF ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA COAST AND

HIGH PRES TO THE W. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 25 TO

OCCASIONALLY 30 KT OFF THE CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA COAST

THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME HIGHER WINDS...INCLUDING

GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL ZONES

DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TROF EXPECTED TO EXTEND NWRD ALONG THE

NRN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WINDS TO

25 KT EXPECTED. 



HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES OVER THE NRN OFFSHORE WATERS TOWARDS THE END

OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FRI AND FRI NIGHT. MODELS DO TRY AND BRING

IN AN AREA OF LOW PRES FRI NIGHT...BUT BOTH THE GFS THE UKMET KEEP

THE RIDGE STRONG AND THE LOW W OF THE FORECAST AREA. ECMWF

STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE IN LATEST RUN...AND SLOWS DOWN PROGRESS OF

THE LOW. HOWEVER...STILL BRINGS LOW TOWARDS THE NRN WATERS BY THE

END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SINCE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED

TOWARDS ECMWF SOLUTION...WILL CONTINUE TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF

SOLUTION FOR THIS PACAKGE...AS IT IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE STRONGER

RIDGE SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND UKMET.





.SEAS...WWIII ENP WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS. WILL POPULATE

WAVE GRIDS FROM 00Z ENP UNTIL 00Z THU...THEN TREND TOWARDS THE 00Z

ECMWFWAVE THEREAFTER. ECMWFWAVE HAVING A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SEAS

IN THE STRONGER WINDS OFF THE CENTRAL AND SRN CALIFORNIA COAST

THAN ENP.





.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.





.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

