

637 

AGNT40 KWNM 101904

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

304 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



SUMMARY...12Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTNDG

SE TO NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN NT2 WTRS...BUT OTHERWISE

INDICATES HI PRES RIDGING OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. LATEST AVAILABLE

ASCAT AND ASCAT HI-RES PASSES FROM THIS MORNING SHOW WINDS TO 20

KT IN E TO SE FLOW OVER THE SRN ZONES OF THE NT2 WTRS...AND LIGHT

WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE REMAINING OFSHR WTRS. LIGHTNING

DENSITY PRODUCT DATA AT 1830Z SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED

SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FAR SRN PART OF THE NT2 AREA...BUT

NOTHING ELSE OVER THE OFSHR WTRS.



MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NEW ENGLAND

REGION FROM THE NW TONITE THRU THU NITE...THEN BECOME STATIONARY

ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRI THRU MON NITE. LOW PRES WILL PASS E

ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE FRI NITE...WITH ANOTHER LOW

PASSING E ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SAT NITE...FOLLOWED BY A THIRD

LOW ON MON.



MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VERY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT

ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS FOR TONITE THRU SAT...SO THE 12Z GFS 10M

SOLN WILL BE USED TO POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING OF THE MAIN FEATURES

VERSUS THE OTHER MED RNG MDLS DURING THE SAT NITE THRU MON NITE

PERIOD AND ALSO LOOKS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SW FLOW ON MON...SO

THE MORE REPRESENTATIVE 12Z ECMWF WILL BE USED FOR THE SAT NITE

THRU MON NITE PERIOD.



SEAS...THE 12Z WNA WAVEWATCH III MDL AND 12Z ECMWF WAM BOTH

INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. ALTHO THE MDLS ARE IN GUD

OVERALL AGREEMNT FOR TONITE THRU SAT...A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z

WNA WAVEWATCH III/ECMWF WAM WILL BE USED FOR THE WAVE HT GRIDS

OVER THIS TIMEFRAME TO SMOOTH OUT SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN

THE MDLS. IN ORDER TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREFERRED 12Z ECMWF

SOLN FOR SAT NITE THRU MON NITE...WILL USE A 20/80 BLEND OF THE

WNA WAVEWATCH/ECMWF WAM DURING THIS PERIOD.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

