

346 

AGNT40 KWNM 291324

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

924 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



A LOW PRES CENTER OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST HAS MAX ASCD WINDS

IN ITS IMMED VCNTY GNRLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. MAX ASCD SEAS HV

ONLY BUILT TO THE 3-5 FT RANGE SO FAR WHICH ARE IN LINE WITH THE

06Z WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM.



OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE LATEST MDLS ARE IN RSNBLY GOOD AGRMT

THAT THE SFC LOW WL TRACK NE ACRS THE FAR NW NT2 AND FAR SE NT1

WTRS ALONG A STNRY FRONT TODAY...THEN ACCELERATE OFF TO THE E OF

THE NT1 WTRS TONITE WHILE PULLING THE FRONT S INTO THE NRN NT2

WTRS AS A COLD FRONT. PER A CONSENSUS OF THE MDLS THE PREVLY

POPULATED ECMWF BL WINDS WITH MAX ASCD WINDS RMNG IN THE 15-25 KT

STIL LOOK REPRESENTATIVE FOR THIS SYSTEM. THEN SAT/SAT NITE

TO SLIGHTLY VARYING DEGREES THE MDLS ALL FCST THE FRONT TO BCM

QSTNRY ACRS THE NRN NT2 WTRS WITH WEAKENING ASCD GRADIENTS. SO

AGAIN THE PREVLY USED ECMWF BL WINDS STILL LOOK GOOD THRU SAT

NITE.



IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 06Z GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT VS ITS PREV

RESPECTIVE RUNS IN FCSTG THE FRONT TO REMAIN QSTNRY ACRS THE NRN

NT2 WTRS INTO TUE WITH SVRL WEAK FRONTAL WAVES TRACKING E ACRS THE

WTRS...WITH THE FINAL WAVE PULLING THE FRONT S INTO THE CNTRL/SRN

NT2 WTRS LATE TUE/TUE NITE. THE 00Z ECMWF THO FCSTS ITS FRONT TO

LIFT FURTHER N INTO THE NT1 WTRS SUN NITE/MON WHICH IS IN GNRL

SPRTD BY THE 00Z UKMET...BUT FURTHER N THAN OTHER 00Z GLOBAL MDLS.

FOR NOW TO BE MR IN LINE WITH THE LATEST WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE

WULD FAVOR THE 00Z/06Z GFS SOLUTION IN THE LONG RANGE. THE PREVLY

USED GRIDS IN THE LONG RANGE ARE FROM THE 27/12Z ECMWF RUN WHICH

ARE MR SMLR TO THE GFS SOLUTION. SO PLAN ON CONTG TO USE THESE

FCST WINDS WITH SM ADDITIONAL EDITS IN DEFERENCE TO THE 00Z/06Z

GFS.







-----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS

THE CENTRAL NT2 WATERS...WITH LOW PRES INLAND W OF THE GULF OF

MAINE. SATELLITE IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA AND RADAR INDICATING SOLID

AREA OF TSTMS OVER THE HUDSON TO BALT CANYON ZONE AND EXTENDING E

INTO THE 1000 FM TO 38.5N ZONE. ASCAT PASSES FROM LATE THU EVENING

DID RETURN A FEW GALES OVER THE HUDSON TO BALT CANYON

ZONE...HOWEVER THESE WERE IN AREA OF CONVECTION AND RAIN FLAGGED.

ELSEWHERE...15 TO 20 KT WINDS WERE NOTED OVER SW NT2 ZONES...WITH

WINDS MOST 15 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF AREA. 



THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SOME DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY

DURING THE SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE

REASONABLY CLOSE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INDICATING LOW PRES

FCST TO MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATER THIS MORNING...THEN

TRACK NE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. THE 00Z UKMET HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH

THE LOW...WHILE THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE WITH GFS.

CONSIDERING THE UKMET HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER 12Z

ECMWF...AM INCLINED TO USE OFFICIAL GRIDS DURING THIS

PERIOD...THOUGH WILL MAKE FINAL CALL AFTER 00Z ECMWF AVAILABLE.

WILL ALSO CONTIUE TO BEEF UP THE WEATHER GRIDS AND INCREASE

COVERAGE OF TSTMS...MAINLY OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL NT2 ZONES. LOOKING

AHEAD TO SUN AND BEYOND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER

LOW MOVING OFFSHORE LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. THE GFS CONTINUES

TO BE A WEAK AND MORE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE OTHER

MODELS...AND FOR THIS REASON WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO USE THE ECMWF

WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH UKMET. WILL ALSO USE OFFICIAL GRIDS

DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.



.SEAS...THE 03Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT BOTH THE MWW3

AND ECMWF WAM WERE CLOSE TO THE OBSERVED SEAS. SIMILAR TO THE WIND

GRIDS...WILL ALSO USE THE OFFICIAL GRIDS FOR SEAS WHICH WERE BASED

OFF 12Z ECMWF. 



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.





.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER VUKITS/KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

