

964 

AGPN40 KWNM 031518

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

818 AM PDT SAT SEP 3 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THRU TUE NIGHT THE PATTERN OVER THE ERN PAC IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE

LITTLE INTO DAY 5 OR WED AS A SERIES OF MID/UPR SHRTWV TROFS PASS

SE JUST N OF THE PZ5 WATERS AND MOV INLAND OVR PAC NW. THE FIRST

OF THESE APPEARS APCHG VANCOUVER ISL ON GOES W/V IMAGERY. THE

EFFECT OF THESE IS TO KEEP THE ERN PAC HIGH WELL W OF WATERS AND

WINDS STAYING BELOW GALE FORCE IN OFSHR WTRS. WINDS COULD

APPROACH GALE FORCE OFF NRN CA ESPCLY LATE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS

AS THE PERSISTENT THERMAL TROF OVR CA STRENGTHENS DIURNALLY. THIS

WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE LATE ON DAY 5 AS THE EPAC UPR RDG AND

HIGH BUILD EWD AS THE LAST OF THE SHRTWV TROFS MOV INLAND. FOR NOW

WILL LEAVE CONDS SUBGALE IN OFSHR WTRS AS THE LATEST RUN OF THE

GFS HAS THE HIGHER FIRST SIGMA LVL WINDS 35 KT OR HIGHER MAINLY IN

CSTL WTRS. THE CURRENT WIND GRIDS BASED ON 00Z GFS 10M WINDS

INITALIZED CLOSE TO PRIOR HIGH RES ASCAT-B PASS FM 06Z AND

THEREFORE APPR ON TARGET.



SEAS...THE CURRENT GRIDS BASED ON 00Z ENP WW3 INITIALIZED CLOSE TO

12Z EPAC SEA STATE ANALYSIS. DURING THE FCST PERIOD INTO WED THE

00Z/06Z ENP NWW3 AGREE WELL WITH 00Z ECMWF WAM MDL WI A FOOT. 

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HIGH PRES WELL W OF THE

PZ6 WATERS CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH INLAND LOW PRES TO PRODUCE NW

WINDS UP TO 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF NRN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH

THE STRONGEST CONDITIONS W OF POINT ARENA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL

REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WED. BY SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT CONDITIONS

WILL COME CLOSE TO GALE FORCE OFF OF NRN CALIFORNIA...BUT FOR NOW

WILL KEEP THE WINDS AT 30 KT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. FARTHER

N...ONE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PZ5 WATERS

MON...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT TUE. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE

GFS AND ECMWF LOOK TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. FOR WIND GRIDS

WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS 10M WINDS THROUGHOUT. THE CURRENT

FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY NO WARNINGS

ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.



THE NWW3 LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE SEAS AND WILL BE FOLLOWED

FAIRLY CLOSELY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.



EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER BANCROFT/NOLT. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

