

539 

AGNT40 KWNM 051908

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

308 PM EDT FRI AUG 5 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



SUMMARY...12Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTNDG

ROUGHLY E TO W ACROSS THE SRN NT2 WTRS...WITH A WEAK LOW CENTERED

JUST E OF THE NT2 AREA NEAR 36N68W. LATEST AVAIL ASCAT AND ASCAT

HI-RES PASSES FROM THIS MORNING SHOW LIGHT WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS

OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. LIGHTNING DENSITY PRODUCT DATA AT 1840Z

SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE INNER ZONES OF THE SRN

NT2 WTRS.



MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN

THIS EVENING...THEN DISSIPATE TONITE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH

THE COAST FROM THE NW TONITE AND SAT...MOVE OFFSHORE LATE SAT AND

SAT NITE...CONTINUE SE OVER THE OFSHR WTRS SUN AND SUN NITE...THEN

STALL AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE SRN NT2 WTRS MON INTO TUE. ANOTHER

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST FROM THE NW LATE WED AND WED

NITE.



MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT

ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS THRU TUE NITE. THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING VRY

GUD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE

12Z GFS 10M SOLN LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE ENUF TO BE USED FOR THE WIND

GRIDS THRU TUE NITE. THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE NOT IN GUD AGREEMNT

REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT ON WED AND WED

NITE...BUT THE 12Z UKMET LOOKS LIKE A GUD MEDIAN SOLN ATTM SO WILL

BE USING IT FOR WED AND WED NITE.



SEAS...12Z WNA WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECMWF WAM BOTH INITIALIZED

WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. THESE MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT

THRU WED NITE...BUT WITH A FEW MINOR DIFFS NOTED OVER THE OFSHR

WTRS AT VARIOUS TIMES...SO WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 12Z WNA

WAVEWATCH III/ECMWF WAM THRU THE FCST PERIOD TO SMOOTH OUT THESE

DIFFS.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. 



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

