

679 

AGNT40 KWNM 300731

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

331 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



SHORT TERM...LOW PRES HAS MOVED E OF GEORGES BANK AND IS NOW

LOCATED NEARLY 150 NM S OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA PER THE 06Z PRELIM

OPC-NCEP SFC ANALYSIS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E-NE AWAY

FROM THE WTRS TODAY. THE ASSOC COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW OVR NRN AND

CENTRAL NT2 WTRS TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS AT THIS TIME. A FEW SCTD

TSTMS WERE BEING DETECTED BY THE LATEST LIGHTNING DENSITY IMGRY

OVR MAINLY NE AND CENTRAL NT2 WTRS RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. THE LATE

EVE ASCAT PASS INDICATED MAX WINDS NR 25 KT FROM FROM SW OVR NE

NT2 WTRS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS GENERALLY 20 KT OR

LESS ELSEWHERE. THESE WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS MATCHED WELL WITH

THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS...WITH THE REMAINING GLBL MDLS ALSO

INITIALIZING QUITE WELL OVR THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR THE

EARLY AM PACKAGE...WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS FOR

TODAY INTO SUN NITE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY

OVR NRN NT2 WTRS DURING THE DAY TODAY. WEAK LOW PRES AREAS WILL

TRACK E-NE ALONG THE FRONT BEGINNING SUN. THERE ARE SOME MINOR

TIMING AND PSN DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE 00Z GLBL MDLS BEGINNING

SUN NITE. AS A RESULT...WE WILL TRANSITION TO A 50-50 BLEND OF THE

00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BY 06 MON TO ACCT FOR THESE DIFFERENCES.

ALSO TSTMS...PER THE LATEST SREF TSTMS GUID ARE FCST TO INCREASE

AT TIMES OVR MAINLY NRN AND CENTRAL NT2 WTRS TODAY INTO MON.

LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS POTENTIALLY NR OR EXCEEDING GALE FORCE AND

ROUGH SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN OR NR THE HEAVIER TSTMS.



LONG TERM...WK LOW PRES AREAS WILL CONT TO TRACK E-NE ALONG THE

FRONT OVR THE NRN NT2 WTRS MON NITE INTO TUE. A FINAL LOW IS

STILL FCST TO MOVE E OF THE WTRS TUE NITE INTO WED AS HIGH PRES

BUILDS E AND SE INTO THE NT1 WTRS. THE ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL THEN

SLIDE SE OVR CENTRAL AND THEN SRN NT2 WTRS WED INTO WED

NITE...WITH THE HIGH BUILDING S INTO NRN AND POTENTIALLY CENTRAL

NT2 WTRS. FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE...WE WILL CONT TO USE A 50-50

BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FOR MON NITE INTO WED NITE

BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY THE 00Z ECWMF LTR WED NITE AND

BEYOND. THIS BLEND APPEARS TO BEST FIT A GENERAL MODELS

CONSENSUS...MAINTAINS CONTINUITY FROM THE PREV FCST...AND IS

GNRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST WPC MED RANGE GUID.



SEAS...THE 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM HV BOTH

INITIALIZED THE CURRENT SEAS QUITE WELL AGAIN EARLY THIS MORNING

BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. FOR THE EARLY AM

PACKAGE WE WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE WW3 FOR TODAY INTO SUN

NITE...TRANSITION TO A 50-50 BLEND OF THE WW3 AND WAM MDLS LATER

SUN NITE INTO WED NITE...AND THEN 100 PERCENT ECMWF WAM

THEREAFTER. THIS WILL MATCH WELL WITH THE FCST WINDS AS DESCRIBED

ABV. 



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. 



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

