

415 

AGPN40 KWNM 270212

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

712 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE UPCOMING FORECAST.



SEAS...WWIII ENP WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS. 



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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



UNFORTUNATELY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS IS MISSING THE AREA OF

EXPECTED HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WA/OR WATERS...ALTHOUGH

ONLY EXPECTING 20-25 KT. THE CANADIAN FCST OFFICE IS MAINTINAING A

GALE WARNING IN VCNTY OF VANISL.



THE OVERALL FCST PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK DURING THE UPCOMING

7 DAY PERIOD AND NOT MANY CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT SET OF

GRIDS OR ASSOCIATED TEXT FCST. THE PERSISTANT N-NW FLOW THAT HAS

BEEN PRODUCING 20-25 KT ACROSS THE WA/OR AND NRN CA WATERS OVER

THE PAST SEVEAL DAYS...WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS

AS HIGH PRES WHICH HAS BEEN SITUATED W OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO

DRIFT W CAUSING THE GRADIENT TO DIMINISH. AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL

MOVE TO NEAR VANISL ON DAYS 2-4 WHILE PULLING A WEAK FRONTAL

BNDRY ACROSS THE WATERS. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN IN VERY

GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 4...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERG SOMEWHAT AS

THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A LOW CENTER SE INTO THE WA WATERS. THE

ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP THE LOW CENTER N OF THE OFFSHORE

WATERS. FURTHER S...ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SRN CA CST...THE

GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK HIGH PRES

CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE REGION. BEGINNING ON DAY 3...THE

COMBINATION OF HIGH PRES BUILDING W OF THE WATERS AND A LOW PRES

TROUGH INTENSIFYING ALONG THE SRN CA CST WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO

INCREASE TO 25 OR 30 KT...ALTHOUGH GFS MAY BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE. WILL

MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND POP THE WIND GRIDS USING THE GFS THROUGH

00Z WED...THEN TRANSITION TO THE ECMWF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE

PERIOD.



SEAS...BOTH THE ENP AND WAM INITIALZIED WELL ACROSS THE OFFSHORE

WATERS. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM 14Z THIS MORNING SHOWS SEAS TO 10

FT JUST W OF THE WA/OR AND NRN CA WATERS. AT 20Z BUOY 46005 AND

46002 ARE RPT 9 FT. WILL POP WAVE GRIDS WITH MODEL TO MATCH WIND

GRIDS.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.





.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER ACHORN/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

