

962 

AGNT40 KWNM 250657

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

257 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 00Z MDLS OVERALL SHARE SMLR FCST

TIMING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FM THE NW TODAY...PUSH

SE ACROSS THE NT1 WTRS LATE TONITE/TUE...AND THEN INTO THE NRN NT2

WTRS TUE NITE. THE MDLS CONT TO FCST THE STRONGEST ASCD WINDS

(GNRLY UP TO 15-20 KT...OR 25 KT AT MOST) WITH THIS FROPA TO DVLP

IN THE SWLY PREFRONTAL GRADIENT TO ACRS THE NRN/CNTRL NT2 WTRS

TONITE/TUE. THEREFORE AS WAS DONE FOR THE PREVIOUS OFSHR FCST

PACKAGE...PLAN ON POPULATING OUR FCST WIND GRIDS WITH THE

REPRESENTATIVE 00Z GFS 10M BL WINDS FOR TODAY THRU TUE NITE WHICH

WL RESULT IN MINIMAL CHNGS.



IN THE LONG RANGE...THE 00Z MDLS IN GNRL AGREE THAT THE COLD

FRONT WL BCM QSTNRY ACRS THE NRN/CNTRL NT2 WTRS WED INTO THU NITE

WITH PRHPS A WEAK SFC LOW(S?) TRACKING NE ALONG THE FRONT WITH

ASCD GRADIENTS REMAINING WEAK (WITH MAX ASCD WINDS GNRLY IN THE

15-20 KT RANGE). FURTHER N THE 00Z GLOBAL MDLS WITH SLIGHT TIMING

DIFFERENCES NOW FCST A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOV OFSHR INTO THE NT1

WTRS THU NITE...THEN WEAKEN FRI. WITH THE MDLS STIL FCSTG WEAK

ASCD WINDS...THE 00Z GFS 10M BL WINDS STIL LOOK TO BE

REPRESENTATIVE AND HENCE WL CONT TO POPULATE WITH THESE WINDS ON

WED THRU THU NITE.



BY LATE FRI INTO FRI NITE THE DISPARITY INCREASES BTWN THE 00Z

 GLOBAL MDLS. WHL THE OTHER GLOBAL MDLS FCST THE QSTNRY FRONT TO

WASH OUT...THE 00Z GFS FCSTS THE FRONT TO PERSIST WITH A MR SIG

SFC LOW THAN ITS PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID

ATLC COAST ON THE FRONT FRI NITE. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN INDICATES THAT

THE 00Z GFS IS LKLY SMWHT TOO STRONG WITH THIS FRONTAL LOW AND

ALSO TOO FAR S. THEREFORE SINCE THEIR SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO THE

LATEST WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND AS A COMPROMISE...WL

TRANSITION TO POPULATING WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND

00Z UKMET BL WINDS FOR FRI/FRI NITE.



.SEAS...OVERALL THE 00Z WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM MDLS HV

BOTH INITIALIZED THE CURRENT SEAS VERY WELL (GNRLY WITHIN ONE FT

VS THE LATEST SFC OBS). WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING FAVORED...PLAN ON

POPULATING OUR FCST WAVE GRIDS WITH ALL 00Z WAVEWATCH III FOR

TODAY THRU THU NITE...WHICH OVERALL ARE NOT SIGLY DIFFERENT THAN

THE 00Z ECMWF WAM FCST SEAS. THEN SINCE THE 00Z ECMWF WL BCM

FAVORED...WL THEN TRANSITION TO POPULATING WITH ALL 00Z ECMWF WAM

FCST SEAS FOR FRI/FRI NITE.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. 



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

