

149 

AGNT40 KWNM 270737

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

337 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL EARLY THIS

MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND EVE ASCAT PASSES WITH MAX

WINDS NR 20 KT OCCURRING OVR NE NT2 WTRS AND FAR SW NT2 WTRS.

LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS NR GALE FORCE WERE NOTED ON THESE ASCAT

PASSES LKLY IN OR NR TSTMS OVR FAR NE NT2 WTRS OR OFF ZONES

ANZ910 AND 910 LATE LAST EVE.



THE LATEST SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA INDICATE A STRONG

TSTM E OF VIRGINIA BEACH (OFFSHORE ZONE ANZ828) WITH SCTD TSTMS

EXTENDING FROM THIS REGION E AND NE OVR THE CENTRAL NT2 WTRS. THE

LATEST SREF TSTMS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE THREAT FOR THE STRONGEST

TSTMS OVR MAINLY CENTRAL INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF NT2 WTRS TODAY

INTO THU. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS EXCEEDING GALES FORCE ARE POSSIBLE

IN OR NR THE STRONGER TSTMS.



OTW...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NR 40N62W W-SW OVR NRN NT2

WTRS AND REACHES THE COAST NR THE JERSEY SHORE EARLY THIS MORNING

PER THE 06Z PRELIM OPC-NCEP SFC ANALYSIS. THE FRONT IS STILL

EXPECTED TO BECOME STNRY LTR TODAY AND TONITE OVR NRN OR CENTRAL

NT2. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW TONITE

INTO THU...AND NEAR THE COAST THU NITE INTO EARLY FRI. FOR THE

EARLY AM PACKAGE WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE 00Z GFS 10M WINDS FOR

TODAY INTO THU EVE...AND THEN TRANSITION TO THE PREV GRIDS FOR

FRI AS THE 00Z ECMWF IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF CYCLE THAT

WAS PREFERRED IN THE PREV FCST. THE 00Z GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD

THE ECMWF SOLUTION BY FRI...WITH WEAK LOW PRES MOVG E ALONG THE

COLD FRONT LATER FRI...ALTHO IT MAY STILL BE A TAD TOO FAST. FOR

THE REMAINDER OF THE PACKAGE FRI NITE THRU SUN NITE WE WILL RELY

ON THE PREV SET OF GRIDS AS THE 00Z ECMWF IS VRY SIMILAR TO THE

12Z CYCLE WHICH WAS USED FOR THE PREV FCST...AND WE SEE NO NEED

TO MAKE SIG CHANGES FOR THE LONGER TERM PORTION OF THE FCST AT

THIS TIME. THE LOW WILL TRACK E FROM NR CAPE MAY LTR FRI AND FRI

NITE...AND PASS OVR FAR SRN NT1 WTRS SAT INTO SAT NITE WHILE

PULLING THE ASSOC COLD FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD OVR THE REGION. THE

FRONT STILL APPEARS AS IF IT WILL STALL OVR NRN NT2 WTRS SAT NITE

WITH A SERIES OF LOWS TRACKING E ALONG THE FRONT SUN AND SUN

NITE.



SEAS...BOTH THE 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM MDLS

INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL OVR THE OFF WTRS PER THE LATEST OBS. SEA

HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FT OVR THE GULF OF MAINE WTRS TO 3 TO 5

FT FROM SRN NT1 WTRS S OVR MOST OF THE NT2 WTRS PER THE LATEST

OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE AND TO REMAIN

CONSISTENT WITH THE WIND FCST WE WILL RELY ON THE 00Z WNA WV

WATCH III MDL GUID FOR TODAY INTO THU NITE...AND THEN TRANSITION

TO THE PREV GRIDS AND FCST FOR LTR THU NITE AND FRI THRU THE

UPCOMING WKND.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. 



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

