

639 

AGPN40 KWNM 140344

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

844 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THERE WAS A RAPID SCAT PASS AT 00Z WITH A SWATH ACRS THE WA INTO

THE OR WTRS. WINDS WERE TO 25 KT OVR THIS AREA WITH BUOY RPTS IN

AGRMT WITH SATEL DERIVED WINDS. 



THIS EVENING A HIGH PRES RDG TO THE W OF THE NRN AND CNTRL AREAS

OF THE OFFSHR WTRS. THE HIGH PRES RDG WL GRADUALLY BUILD EWD ACRS

THE NRN AND CNTRL WTRS LATER SUN THRU THU NGT. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE

GALES SHUD DVLP OVR THE NRN CA WTRS BY MON NGT WITH SMLR AGRMT

BETWEEN THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF MDL GUID. STGST WINDS LOOK LIKELY TO

OCCUR TUE NGT INTO WED NGT AS THE COASTAL TROF OVR NRN CA

INTENSIFIES. FOR THE UPDATED FCST FEW CHANGES WL BE MADE AND WL

AWAIT 00Z MDL GUID BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.



-----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



THE VIS AND IR SAT IMG STILL INDC MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE

FORECAST WATERS. THE OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT PASSES AT 1707Z AND

1845Z SHOW HIGHER N WINDS OVER THE PZ5 WATERS. THE 18Z NCEP MAP

STILL HAS A BROAD HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NRN PACIFIC WITH SEVERAL

CENTERS. THE HIGH STILL HAS ITS RIDGE EXTENDING NE INTO THE NRN

WATERS AND ANOTHER ONE SE INTO THE SRN WATERS. INLAND TROUGH STIL

EXTENDS FROM SRN CA INTO SRN WA WHILE LOW PRES 990 MB OVR THE

ALEUTIAN ISLANDS HAS AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT STRETCHES NE AND E

THEN A WARM FRONT THAT ENDS ABOUT 300 NM N OF THE REGION AND A

COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHES SW PASSING ABOUT 300 NM W OF THE PZ5

WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT IS STILL RELAXED AND MAX WINDS ARE ONLY

25 KT.



AN UPPERLEVEL RIDGE WITH VERY LITTLE ENRGY IS OVER THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME ENRGY EMBEDDED IN AN UPPERLELVEL LOW OVER THE

ELEUTIAN ISLANDS THAT WILL BE PUSHED INTO THE GULF OF AK. JUST

BEHIND THE UPPERLEVEL RIDGE IS A TROUGH THAT HAS SOME ENERGY THAT

WILL GLIDE NE OVER THE HIGH AND MOVE INTO THE NRN WATERS THEN MOVE

SE AND BE JUST E OF THE CENTRAL WATERS AND THAT WILL HELP TO

MAINTAIN A STRONGER INLAND TROF.



THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH JUST MINOR

DIFFERENCES AND THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE FEW SYNOPTIC

FEATURES AFFECTING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS. THE

ECMWFHR AND UKMETHR ARE BOTH WEAKER THAN THE MAX OBSERVED WINDS BY

5 KT WHILE THE CMC IS HIGHER BY 5 KT. THE GFS/NOGAPS AND JMA MATCH

THE MAX OBSERVED WINDS. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT

WITH THE GALES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND WITH THE EXPECTED ENERGY

TO REACH E OF THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL RETAIN THE GALE WARNINGS

WITH MOD TO HIGH CONFDC. IN THE SHORT TERM HIGH PRES WILL REAMIN

TO THE W OF THE WATERS AND WILL STILL MAINTAIN ITS RIDGES OVER THE

WATERS WHILE THE INLAND TROF WILL ALSO PERSIST AND EVEN

STRENGTHEN. GALE WARNINGS ARE ON TRACK TO SPREAD INTO THE WATERS

EARLY TUE ONWARDS.



.SEAS...THE SEAS RANGE BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS AND

THEY RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FT OVER THE SRN WATERS. THE NWW3 MULTI

GRID STILL FITS VERY WELL WITH THE OBSERVED SEAS PATTERN AND HAS

CONTINUED TO MATCH THE PEAK VALUES TOO. THE ECMWFWAVE HAS ALSO

CONTINUED TO INITILAIZE WELL AND IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH

THE NWW3. BOTH WAVE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSSISTENT AND SO WILL

JUST CONTINUE TO USE NWW3 FOR THE GRIDS. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL

REMAIN AT 8 FT OVER THE NRN WATERS THRU MON NIGHT THEN BUILD TO

PEAK AT 15 FT THU.





.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...







.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...

     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU. 

.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...

     GALE POSSIBLE WED NIGHT INTO THU. 

.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...

     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO THU. 



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE POSSIBLE TUE INTO THU. 

.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...

     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. 

.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...

     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. 

.PZZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...

     GALE POSSIBLE WED INTO WED NIGHT. 



$$



.FORECASTER ROWLAND/MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

