

873 

AGNT40 KWNM 290553

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

153 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS

THE CENTRAL NT2 WATERS...WITH LOW PRES INLAND W OF THE GULF OF

MAINE. SATELLITE IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA AND RADAR INDICATING SOLID

AREA OF TSTMS OVER THE HUDSON TO BALT CANYON ZONE AND EXTENDING E

INTO THE 1000 FM TO 38.5N ZONE. ASCAT PASSES FROM LATE THU EVENING

DID RETURN A FEW GALES OVER THE HUDSON TO BALT CANYON

ZONE...HOWEVER THESE WERE IN AREA OF CONVECTION AND RAIN FLAGGED.

ELSEWHERE...15 TO 20 KT WINDS WERE NOTED OVER SW NT2 ZONES...WITH

WINDS MOST 15 KT OR LESS OVER REMAINDER OF AREA. 



THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SOME DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY

DURING THE SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE

REASONABLY CLOSE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INDICATING LOW PRES

FCST TO MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATER THIS MORNING...THEN

TRACK NE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND

EVENING. THE 00Z UKMET HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER AND STRONGER WITH

THE LOW...WHILE THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE WITH GFS.

CONSIDERING THE UKMET HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE STRONGER 12Z

ECMWF...AM INCLINED TO USE OFFICIAL GRIDS DURING THIS

PERIOD...THOUGH WILL MAKE FINAL CALL AFTER 00Z ECMWF AVAILABLE.

WILL ALSO CONTIUE TO BEEF UP THE WEATHER GRIDS AND INCREASE

COVERAGE OF TSTMS...MAINLY OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL NT2 ZONES. LOOKING

AHEAD TO SUN AND BEYOND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER

LOW MOVING OFFSHORE LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING. THE GFS CONTINUES

TO BE A WEAK AND MORE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE OTHER

MODELS...AND FOR THIS REASON WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO USE THE ECMWF

WHICH ARE MORE IN LINE WITH UKMET. WILL ALSO USE OFFICIAL GRIDS

DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.



.SEAS...THE 03Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT BOTH THE MWW3

AND ECMWF WAM WERE CLOSE TO THE OBSERVED SEAS. SIMILAR TO THE WIND

GRIDS...WILL ALSO USE THE OFFICIAL GRIDS FOR SEAS WHICH WERE BASED

OFF 12Z ECMWF. 



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER KOSIER. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

