

360 

AGNT40 KWNM 111906

MIMATN



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

306 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.



SUMMARY...12Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER

THE OFSHR AND COASTAL WTRS...WITH A WEAK TROF OVER THE GULF OF

MAINE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING NRN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE

NW. LATEST AVAILABLE ASCAT HI-RES AND ASCAT PASSES FROM LAST NITE

INDICATE LIGHT WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS OVER THE OFSHR WTRS...SO THE

12Z ECMWF MDL APRS TO BE INITIALIZING QUITE WELL THERE. LIGHTNING

DENSITY PRODUCT DATA AT 1850Z DOES NOT SHOW ANY SHOWER OR TSTM

ACTIVITY OVER THE OFSHR WTRS.



MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...A WEAK SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PREVAIL

ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...WITH WINDS NOT

EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 KT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE

NEW ENGLAND STATES FROM THE NW TONITE...THEN BECOME STATIONARY

ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRI THRU MON. A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL

PASS E ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE FRI NITE THRU SUN

NITE. A HI PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NT1 AREA MON...THEN

MOVE E OVER THE WTRS MON NITE THRU TUE NITE.



MODELS...THE 12Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT THRU TUE

NITE...EXCEPT THE 12Z UKMET BRINGS A VERY STRONG LOW INTO THE

GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUE NITE WHICH LOOKS VERY ANONALOUS. THE 12Z

ECMWF APPEARS TO FIT IN BEST WITH THE WEAK SUMMERTIME PATTERN

EXPECTED THRU TUE NITE...SO IT WILL BE USED TO POPULATE THE WIND

GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD. 



SEAS...BOTH THE 12Z WNA WAVEWATCH III MDL AND THE 12Z ECMWF WAM

INITIALIZED WELL OVER THE OFFSHORE/COASTAL WTRS...AND ARE IN

REASONABLY GUD AGREEMNT THRU THE FCST PRD. SINCE THE 12Z ECWMF IS

THE PREFERRED MDL SOLN FOR THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD...IN ORDER TO BE

CONSISTENT WILL USE THE 12Z ECMWF WAM ALL THE WAY THRU THE FCST

PERIOD.



.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...

     NONE.



.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

