

974 

AGPN40 KWNM 020229

MIMPAC



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN

NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC

729 PM PDT THU SEP 1 2016



.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT

.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.



THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HIGH PRES CENTERED W OF

THE PZ6 WATERS CONTINUES TO COMBINE WITH INLAND LOW PRES TO

PRODUCE NW WINDS UP TO 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WITH THE

STRONGEST CONDITIONS W OF POINT CONCEPTION AND W OF POINT ARENA.

THE HIGHEST CONDITIONS W OF POINT ARENA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN

PLACE THROUGH TUE WITH HIGHEST WINDS OF 30 KT OR SO MAINLY IN THE

COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER N...ONE WEAK LOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO

DROP SE INTO THE PZ5 WATERS BY MON AND THEN DISSIPATE. ANOTHER

WEAK LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE PZ5 WATERS BY TUE. FOR WIND GRIDS

WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE GFS 10M WINDS THROUGHOUT. CURRENT

FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY NO WARNINGS

ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.



THE NWW3 LOOKS REASONABLE WITH THE SEAS AND WILL BE FOLLOWED

FAIRLY CLOSELY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.



EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A. 



-----------------------------------------------------------------

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...



THE FCST PATTERN HASNT CHANGED MUCH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND

REMAINS VERY STABLE. A LOW PRES TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CA

CST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF THE HIGHER

WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. GENERALLY 20-25 KT ACROSS THE INNER

OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO

GALE FORCE ACROSS SMALL AREAS OF THE COASTAL ZONES. HIGH PRES WILL

REMAIN ANCHERED WELL W OF THE REGION. A RIDGE AXIS WILL

PERIODICALLY BUILD E AND NE INTO THE NRN CA WATERS AND WERN PTN OF

THE WA/CA AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK S/WVS WILL ROTATE OVER THE TOP OF

THE RIDGE AND DIG SE OVE THE WA/OR WATERS OVR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.



THE 12Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE

FCST PERIOD WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES. THE SMALL DIFFERENCES

HAVE TO DO WITH THE LOCATION OF THE VARIES WEAK S/WVS AS THE MOVE

OVR THE NRN WATERS. NO LARGE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED ATTM AND WINDS

ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25 KT DURING ANY PART OF THE

FCT...EXCEPT A SLIGHT POSS OF WINDS TO 30 KT OVER FAR ERN PTN OF

THE INNER OFFSHORE WATERS ALONG THE CA CST. WILL POP THE WIND

GRIDS USING THE GFS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND WILL POP THE SEAS

USING THE ENP.

 

THE ASCAT PASS FROM 18Z DOESNT SHOW ANY WINDS OVER THE WATERS

HIGHER THAN 20 KT. LATEST OBS INDICATE SEAS ARE GENERALLY 5-8 FT

ACROSS THE WATERS.



EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.





.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.



.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...

     NONE.



.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...

     NONE.



$$



.FORECASTER NOLT/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

