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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFGF Received: 2021-06-16 18:22 UTC
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884 FXUS63 KFGF 161822 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 122 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 A few showers and weak thunderstorms have developed in Barnes and Cass counties, which should move east over the next few hours near the Fargo-Moorhead metro area. This is a little unexpected as there is supposed less than -300 J/kg of CIN in place due to warm H7 temps. Additionally muted insolation from smoke is evident further limiting instability. Nevertheless they are finding a way to sustain and continue within the thermal ridge, leading to the belief they are driven by WAA processes. This convection is being fed by weak to moderate instability (MLCAPE values 1-2 kJ/kg), and strongly sheared environment as noted on KMVX VAD. Because of this environment, the convection does bare watching. Luckily satellite and radar trends have showed a plateau in strengthening, so perhaps the capping/lack of better BL moisture is keeping it at bay. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds out there ahead of the front with a muted heating trend as expected. UPDATE Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 Morning light is revealing a plume of elevated smoke moving east across the Dakotas from fires in the West. This is expected to effect the temperature forecast by decreasing them. Using current trajectories of the plume and HRRR smoke model, thinking this will have most effect on daytime temps within the RRV into NW and WC MN as it moves over these locations during peak heating (Noon-7pm CDT). Upper 90s in the southern Valley do not appear likely anymore, with most locations staying in the 80s to low 90s. This lack of insolation may serve to further inhibit the potential for thunderstorm initiation along the front this afternoon. However there is still the expectation of more robust convection to develop near focused WAA ahead of a revamping LLJ this evening within central MN, some of which may be strong to severe. It remains unclear if this activity will blossom in our eastern counties, but it appears the chance for initiation within the Valley just went down. There remains some WAA driven sprinkles/thundershowers in eastern ND through the morning as driven by last night's WAA/LLJ convection in western ND. The expectation is for this activity to wane around midday within the RRV, but may continue to move east into far NW MN. This activity is currently not expected to be strong to severe. Otherwise, gusty south-southeast winds 20-35 mph are developing as expected ahead of the front. UPDATE Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 A single cell has developed southwest of Minot and is moving east. Doubtful it will hold together to make our western zones, but could see some increased cloud cover going into the Devils Lake area. At this point do not think it would impact temperatures but that will depend on cirrus blowoff. For an increase in sky for the morning hours at will bring TS into areas just west of Devils Lake. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 The forecast challenge for the short term period will be potential for convection associated with a cold front moving across the region today. This morning starts with a high amplitude upper ridge in place, however an upper wave moving out of the Pacific NW into Alberta will help flatten the ridge out as it shifts east of the CWA by 00Z. At the surface, a cold front moves into the western zones during the mid afternoon. NBM dewpoints pool around 65 deg dewpoints along the frontal boundary during peak heating, however that seems a tad high compared to what is upstream...and have lowered them to the 58 to 62 range across the CWA. This will be the axis for modest afternoon CAPE, HOWEVER, a solid H700 thermal ridge axis moves over the CWA by late afternoon. With H700 temps around 13 to 15 C, believe the CAP will be hard to break given the best lift will be across Manitoba as the aforementioned wave moves across the lower western provinces. Best PVA will be across the Manitoba lakes, with very weak PVA moving across the southern valley. Given the CAPE values, if the thermal cap did break a few severe storms are possible in the higher dewpoints across west central MN, but confidence for this scenario is low given the strength of the cap. A more likely scenario is to get weaker storms or showers in the far east during the overnight period as cooler H700 temperatures move into northeastern MN. The best chance for convection is more than likely going to be vicinity of Lake of the Woods tonight. Another concern has been strength of southerly winds this afternoon. Soundings for the Fargo area have max winds in the adiabatic layer only around 20 to 25 kts, so the slightly lower winds on the latest NBM run make sense and have lowered winds accordingly. Dry and much cooler temperatures arrive for Thursday, with todays highs in the 90s falling into the 80s tomorrow. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 The main impacts in the long term look to be the return to below normal temperatures and a better chance for widespread rainfall. The 500mb low that crosses Canada and flattens the ridge in the short term begins to drop southeast over the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. Cyclonic flow, cooler 500mb temperatures, 850mb cold advection, and a secondary surface cold front all mark this time frame. The results will be a markedly cooler day Friday with gusty northwest winds and scattered showers (mainly across northwest Minnesota). Behind this, the 500mb flow becomes more zonal from Friday night into Saturday. By Saturday night into Sunday night the next 500mb wave tracks through the FA. At this point, this looks like the best chance for widespread rainfall across the FA. However, overall precipitation amounts at this point do not look to be all that great. The Canadian, GEFS, and ECMWF ensembles all show high probabilities for greater than 0.10 inches, but low probabilities for greater than 0.50 inches. So this period should be cool, breezy, and wet. There is more forecast uncertainty by Monday into Tuesday in regard to lingering precipitation chances. However, there is a little better certainty in the continued below normal temperature regime with breezy winds. In addition, surface dewpoints look to be abnormally dry, with the NBM showing them to be in the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Jun 16 2021 VFR conditions are expected, with the exception of KFAR where a cluster of showers and weak storms should move near the TAF site between 20-22 UTC. Gusty south-southeast winds will be present ahead of a cold front this afternoon. There will be a lull in winds as the front passes, followed by increased northwest winds after the front passes. There is a slight chance of additional thunderstorms within northwest and west-central MN later this afternoon, which may impact KBJI. Confidence wasn't high enough to include within the 18 UTC TAF suite, but will amend if needed. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...CJ SHORT TERM...Speicher LONG TERM...Godon AVIATION...CJ